BY HARRY BONDI
Members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team” were treated to a pair of 4-Star NFL Playoff winners last weekend when we used San Francisco and Kansas City as our top plays.
We continue to be the best NFL Playoff handicappers in the country, hitting better than 72% of our selections over the last 10 years.
As we prepare for Conference Championship Sunday, one of the best days of the entire sports betting calendar each year, here are some tried and true betting trends that are always helpful to our handicapping process.
If you would like to get my NFL Championship Game selections, the Super Bowl and our highly anticipated Super Bowl Prop Best Bet Report for FREE, call me today at 1-877-332-0077 and join our Basketball “Steam Team” through the Final Four in April for $1,200.
Now, onto this weekend’s NFL Playoff betting trends:
- Underdogs in the Conference Championships have swept the last two seasons, but favorites are still 64-33 straight up and 52-43-2 (55%) against the spread. Favorites of between 7-9.5 points have had the most success, going 17-8 (68%) against the spread in conference championships since 1970. However, favorites of 7 points or more since 2003 are just 2-9 ATS.
Since 2008, the winner of the conference championship games has gone 18-4 ATS. During that same time frame, the dog is 13-11, but of those 13 covers, eight of those teams won the game outright.
- The dog has been barking in the NFC Championship Game, cashing tickets in eight out of the last 12 years, with six outright wins. In the AFC, the home team has won 10 of the last 13 AFC Championship Games while going 9-4 ATS.
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- Home teams have enjoyed recent success in the Conference Championship, going 10-2 straight up the last five years and 8-4 ATS. Since the merger, home teams are 67-30 straight up and since 1980 No. 1 seeds are 30-14 straight up. The only No. 1 seed remaining this year is San Fran, after the Ravens were upset by Tennessee last week.
- Overall, 46 of the 99 Conference Championship Games in NFL history have been decided by 14 points or more, but the games have been closer in recent years, including last year when both games went into overtime. In the last nine years, only six of the 18 games on Championship Sunday have been decided by more than 10 points.
- The “under” is 9-6-1 (60%) the last eight Conference Championship Weekends. The AFC Championship Game has gone under in five of the last eight years with the losing team failing to score 20 points in all of those games that went under. Nine of the last 13 NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged nearly 30 points per game during that span.
- However, when a Conference Championship Game total is 46 points or higher, like both of last year’s Championship Games, the over is 15-7-1 (68%).
- This trend is not applicable this year, but save it for future use. Teams arriving to the championship game following a high scoring output in the previous game tend to struggle the following week. Teams that score 34 or more points in a divisional round have gone 22-20 straight up and just 17-25 ATS in the Conference Championship. Overall, since 1996, teams that score 40 or more points in an NFL playoff game, are just 5-25-1 ATS the following week.
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