BY HARRY BONDI
We went 3-1 during Wild Card Weekend, which means members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team” have now hit 74% in the NFL postseason the last eight years.
The reason for this success is simple: We analyze these games like no other handicapping team in the business.
It’s a combination of watching hours of film, speaking with our endless string of media members and Las Vegas contacts and crunching numbers and historical data.
Over the last few days, my staff and I have met multiple times to discuss what we have found through our extensive research, and below are just a few key factors out of the dozens and dozens we have uncovered.
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1. BYE WEEK IS OVERRATED
In nine of the last 10 years at least one of the teams coming off a bye in the divisional round lost outright, with last year as the exception, and No. 1 seeds are just 9-17 ATS in Divisional Round games since 2004, despite the fact that the No. 1 seeds in each conference have advanced to the Super Bowl in each of the last three years.
Since 2006, teams that are off a bye week in the divisional round are 26-16 straight up, but just 16-25-1 ATS, and including the last five years when the record is 16-4 SU, but just 8-12 ATS. The fact that the record of these same rested teams was 51-13 SU and 38-26 ATS from 1990 thru 2005, makes us think the oddsmaker finally caught up and is baking the bye week factor into the line.
2. THE DOGS HAVE BEEN BARKING
Since 1985, favorites are 82-77-4 ATS in the divisional round, but since 2006 underdogs have gone 23-16-1 ATS (59%) with 14 outright upsets.
Also, double-digit favorites in this round are just 23-20-2 ATS since 1990 with 12 of those big dogs winning outright, and since 2004 divisional round road underdogs are 28-20-2 (58%).
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3. BLOWOUTS ARE COMMONPLACE
Last year, all four divisional round games were decided by 7 points or less, but that was a rare occurrence. In the previous 28 years, more than half the divisional round games (82 out of 156) were decided by 11 points or more, and 68 of those games were decided by more than two touchdowns.
4. ATS STRUGGLES FOR BRADY & THE PATS
Despite all of their past playoff success, the Patriots have covered just six of their last 18 playoff games. On that same note, Tom Brady is 22-9 straight up in the postseason, but just 14-17 ATS, including 2-4 ATS in the Super Bowl. And those numbers include the 10-0 SU/6-4 ATS start he got to his playoff career.
The Pats are a 16-point favorite this weekend against the Texans and while Brady is 29-31 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more and just 18-24 ATS since November 2007, he is 2-0 this season with blowout wins over the Jets and Rams, and 4-0 ATS overall this season as a favorite of 9 or more, covering as a 10-point chalk at San Fran and Cleveland.
Want more conflicting trends? While NFL Playoff favorites of 16 or more are 3-0 ATS since 1994, the Texans have only lost seven of their last 50 games by more than 13 points, but two of those blowout losses came at New England.
What does it all mean for this weekend’s games? Give Harry Bondi a call to find out.
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