NFL
CAROLINA OVER 10.5 WINS (+120)
History has shown that the Super Bowl loser typically experiences a hangover in the following season. But we don’t see that happening with the Panthers and even if it does, they could still win four less games than last year and we’d still cash this ticket. The Panthers, who are an NFL-best 22-3 SU since Nov. 2014, have Pro Bowlers up and down the roster and Cam Newton and the offense will get a huge boost from the return of WR Kelvin Benjamin, who missed all of last season. Carolina plays in the very weak NFC South and that translates into at least four to five easy wins. They’ll be favored in every single game this year, except for a Dec. 4 trip to Seattle, but that’s a place this team has won before and can do it again. We’ll call for a 13-3 season.
TENNESSEE OVER 5.5 WINS (-170)
The Titans were much better than their 3-13 record last year, when you consider they had a rookie QB, had to change head coaches mid-way through the season and suffered six losses by six points or less. We love the offseason additions they made, especially at offensive line and at RB with DeMarco Murray and Heisman winner Derrick Henry, and with QB Marcus Mariota in his second seasons we don’t think a three-game improvement is a stretch, especially with non-divisional games against Miami, Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago and a Week 1 game against the Vikings without Tedy Bridgewater.
SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 5.5 WINS (-120)
We were big fans of Chip Kelly at Oregon, but not so much in the NFL. He alienated players, coaches and front office personnel in Philly and his offensive system is better suited for the college game. The 49ers do not have much talent on the roster. The QB situation is a mess with Blaine Gabbert and the now-clubhouse cancer Colin Kaepernick and there are not many playmakers on offense. They play in the very tough NFC West and they get the AFC East in inter-league play which means they face the Patriots, with Brady back, and have to travel to Buffalo and Miami, which are never easy places to play. We can’t find six wins on the schedule for San Francisco.
COLLEGE
SAN DIEGO STATE OVER 9.5 WINS (-140)
San Diego State has a top-five, veteran defensive unit that will again lead the way to a Mountain West Championship. Head Coach Rocky Long’ (above) employs a unique 3-3-5 defense that is hard to prepare for because very few teams use it. It’s about speed and the Aztecs attack-minded defense has that in spades as well as a number of playmakers who can completely take over games. The SDSU secondary had the second-most interceptions of any team in the FBS last year, and it returns nearly all of its starters. Offensively, the Aztecs return 7 starters led by All American running back Donnel Pumphrey and could be favored in every game this year against a very weak schedule.
ILLINOIS UNDER 4.5 WINS (-110)
We were never fans of Lovie Smith as a head coach in the NFL and that certainly doesn’t change as he makes the transition to the college ranks and takes over a roster that is well below average on the talent barometer. The Ilini should win in Week 1 when they host Murray State, but we expect them to be underdogs in 10 of their final 11 games, and in seven of those games they’ll be getting double digits. The schedule-makers didn’t do Illinois any favors as they’ll face both Michigan and Michigan State in conference and have a non-conference game in Week 2 against North Carolina, a team we’re very high on. They also finish the season with road trips to Wisconsin and Northwestern, sandwiched around a home game with Iowa, who could be undefeated. No way this team even scratches the surface of getting to five wins.
TENNESSEE UNDER 10 WINS (-150)
A lot of pundits are very high on the Vols this year and while we agree they will be much improved and could even challenge for an SEC title, we’re willing to bet that they won’t get to 11 regular season wins. This is a program that hasn’t won 10 games since 2004 and hasn’t been to an upper tier bowl game in 15 years. Throw in a typically tough SEC schedule that includes a brutal four-week stretch of hosting Florida, traveling to Georgia and Texas A&M and then back home against Alabama. The expectations both from both the fans and the betting markets has simply got out of control. Go under.
CINCINNATI OVER 7 WINS (-200)
Head coach Tommy Tuberville has a ton of talented and new QB Hayden Moore will throw to the most experienced group of receivers in the nation and defensively Cincinnati returns eight starters, led by safety Zach Edwards and linebacker Eric Wilson. Even with tough matchups against Temple, Houston, BYU and Memphis, this team will easily get over their season win total of 7. We have correctly predicted the Bearcats win total in six of the last seven years, and see a 9-3 year in 2016.
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