When the gun goes off for the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at 6:48 p.m. ET there will be two dramatic differences from the Kentucky Derby, which was held two weeks ago, and both with make handicapping the race much easier.
First off is the field. While the Derby annually draws 20 of the best three-year-old horses, the Preakness has just 10 entrants. That takes out the wildcard of drawing a far outside post or the effect of a speed horse or two with no shot to win can have on the race.
Secondly, is the weather. This year’s Kentucky Derby was a “muckers” delight with a slick and wet track. It definitely affected the outcome of the race, but that won’t be the case on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. After some record-setting heat early in the week, the forecast for this weekend is cooler and dry temperatures.
Quite simply, the three 30-to-1 longshots — Multiplier, Term of Art and Senior Investment — have zero shot of winning. That diminishes the field to seven.
The overwhelming favorite at 4-to-5, Always Dreaming had a “dream” race at the Derby and he made it count. Everything went his way two weeks ago and it’s difficult to imagine another flawless day on Saturday. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 0-for-8 at the Preakness. This horse is nowhere near the same caliber as the last three horses to win both the Derby and the Preakness — I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015) — and we don’t think he should be priced as such.
Remember, the Preakness favorite has only won 13 of the last 32. He still may be involved in our exotic wagers, but we will not be picking him to win.
We will, however, be selecting one of the below horses to win the Preakness at a handsome price, To get our final trifecta and superfecta best bets, call Harry Bondi at 1-888-332-0077 anytime after Friday at 1 p.m. ET.
#2 Cloud Computing (12-to-1): One of the more lightly raced horses in the field, Cloud Computing is also the one with perhaps the most speed, so we like his draw and the way he has prepared for Saturday. He won his maiden race at Aqueduct as well as his stakes debut in March at Gotham Stakes. And although he finished third at the Wood Memorial and failed to clinch a spot in the Derby, we liked what we saw from him in a race that favored the front-runners and was not a great situation for him.
#5 Classic Empire (3-to-1): Many pundits pegged Classic Empire to win the Kentucky Derby, so his fourth-place finish was a looked at as a disappointment. But we’re not ready to jump off this horse just yet. For all of the same reasons some very sharp handicappers liked him two weeks ago, we think he could be a factor on Saturday.
#6 Gunnevera (15-to-1): Lost his Derby jockey, Javier Castellano, to Cloud Computing, but that isn’t scaring us off our Gunnevera, who we unsuccessfully picked to win the Derby. This was the one horse that may have been affected the most by the poor track conditions at Churchill Downs, but we’re looking for a huge bounce back this week. We like the draw, which has put him in position for a cleancut race here.
#10 Conquest Mo Money (15-to-1): With second-place finishes in the Arkansas Derby and Sunland Derby, Conquest Mo Money was in contention to run for the roses at Churchill Downs, but his trainers made the difficult decision to hold him back, seemingly setting him up for a big effort on Saturday at the Preakness. And our bird dogs at Pimlico this week tell us Conquest Mo Money has taken to the track very well during workouts.