2017 Masters Golf Best Bet Report
Following another profitable run through March Madness, our “Steam Team” clients were sad to see the college basketball season come to an end on Monday night when we cashed in on North Carolina (-1) over Gonzaga in the NCAA Championship Game. But luckily the early spring is also a great time of year to be a sports bettor with the start of baseball season, the NBA Playoffs and, of course, golf.
It doesn’t matter if you’re a diehard golfer or you have never stuck a tee into the ground, the Masters is truly a made-for-TV-event that is even more entertaining if you have some “interest” in the proceedings.
Over the years we have had great success with our golf picks, particularly in the majors and this year’s Masters field is one of the most intriguing we’ve seen in years.
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Masters Betting Trends
When it comes to the Masters, we have three important attributes we look at when handicapping the field:
Experience: The last time a player won the Masters in his first start at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. The average number of career starts at the Masters for a first-time champion is five. Also, the last 16 Masters champions made the cut the year before and eight of the last 13 winners have had played in at least 20 majors in their career. Ten of the last 17 winners were ranked in the top 10 of the World Golf Ranking heading into the week, and finally, 23 of the last 26 winners have previously shot a round in the 60s at Augusta. Put it all together and you can see why past experience on this course is so crucial.
Recent Form: The last 13 Masters champions had already recorded a top-10 in the current season, meaning you should avoid a player who has started the season off struggling. Augusta National is not the place to shake off the rust.
Fast starts: Eight of the last nine Masters winners shot in the 60s during Round 1 and while the Round 1 leader has gone on to win just twice in the last 31 years, only two winners have been outside the Top 10 heading into Round 2 since 1998, and 79 of the last 80 winners were within six strokes of the lead at the start of Round 3. It also appears to help if you are in the final pairing on Sunday, since that’s where the winner has come from in 21 of the last 26 years.
Play on Par 5s: Par-5s are vital to success in the Masters. The last 10 Masters champions are a whopping 90-under par on par-5s, as compared to 12-under on par-4s and 4-under on par-3s. And while length is important, keep in mind that course management is equally important. Driving distance is important at Augusta because the course plays longer than its actual yardage and with some windy conditions expected in Rounds 1 and 2 this year, the big bombers will have a distinct advantage. The eventual Masters winner has also ranked high on the PGA TOUR heading into the week in driving distance (average of 22nd), greens in regulation (6th), scrambling (7th), putting average (10th).
Jason Day to WIN 
16-to-1
Dustin Johnson (6-1), Rory McIlroy (7-1) and Jordan Spieth (8-1) are the heavy favorites to win this year’s Masters, but at those prices, there’s simply no value in playing. But because of his much-publicized off-course issues (his mother is battling cancer), Jason Day, at 16-1, provide tremendous value. Yes, we realize he emotionally withdrew from the last event he played in, but last year at this time he was 6-1 to win the Masters and this year he opened at 7-1. The inflated price is a vast overreaction when you consider this is the same guy who has six Top 10 finishes in his last seven majors — including a PGA Championship victory — and his cumulative score in those seven events is 10 strokes better than anyone else. He also ranks ninth in par-5 scoring, a key stat mentioned above, and he’s had great success at Augusta with four top 20 finishes in five starts, including a T-2 in 2011 when he fired a 64 in the third round. If he can channel his emotions and go out there and have fun playing golf again, Day will be in contention on Sunday and we can’t resist the big price.
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Hideki Matsuyama to WIN
23-to-1
Here’s another big price on a player who has had his share of past success at Augusta.
In five previous starts at the Masters, Matsuyama has a T-7 last years and T-5 in 2015, which included a final-round 66, and he was the top amateur in the field back in 2011.
Overall, the 25-year-old from Japan has five Top 10 finishes in 17 career major starts. Not only does he already have four victories and two second-place finishes this season, but he’s ranked No. 1 in par 5 scoring average and 10th in bogey avoidance, another key stat for all Masters winners. Grab the big price!
MATCH-UPS
Brooks Koepka (-125) over Patrick Reed
Koepka is a big hitter (ranked fifth on TOUR in driving distance) who is also very good with the putter (33rd in total putting) and he’s ranked 9th this year in par 5 scoring, so it’s no surprise he has a T-21 and T-33 in his first two Masters starts the last two years.
In fact, very quietly Koepka has a T-21 or better in eight of his 10 major championships and three top 5s.
Reed just doesn’t have the temperament to deal with the intricacies of Augusta and this year he’s 109th in par 5 scoring and 159th in bogey avoidance.
Bill Haas (-115) over JB Holmes
We’re expecting a big week from Haas, who is in good form with five Top 13 finishes in nine starts this season, and has finished in the Top 25 the last four years at the Masters. He’s also ranked 34th on par 5 scoring and is No. 2 on bogey avoidance. Holmes is a big bomber and he did manage to finish T-4 here last year, but the year before he missed the cut and his game is not in shape for Augusta as seen by his season ranking in par 5 scoring (98th), bogey avoidance (125th) and total putting (143rd).
TOP 10 FINISH
Lee Westwood
+630
Westwood is in the discussion for “best player to have never won a major,” but Augusta has been a course he’s come very close a few times, with four top 8 finishes in the last five years and seven top 11 finishes in the last nine. He’s also in great form with seven top 30 finishes in his last eight events, so let’s take the +630 that he’ll contend and land in the top 10 this weekend.