2017 U.S. Open Golf Betting Preview
Welcome to Erin Hills, site of the 2017 U.S. Open, where the 156 golfers in contention have just as many major championship starts on this golf course as you. As in zero.
That’s right. This marks the first time Erin Hills has ever ever hosted a major and while that takes away a historical trend that we always like to look at when handicapping golf, it also evens the playing field as nobody will have a distinct advantage of course knowledge or experience.
A few key notes about Erin Hills that we do indeed know:
It’s a beast. And the rain in the forecast will make the longest course in U.S. Open history play even longer than its 7,800+ yards. This is also the first time a par 72 has been used for the US Open since Pebble Beach in 1992.
It’s wide. Not only is the course long, but the fairways are wide, which means driving distance will be a key stat, much more so than driving accuracy.
It will be windy. The forecast right now is moderate winds from 5 to 15 mph, but this is an area of the country and a course that is prone to windy conditions, so we’ll be looking for players that don’t mind it howling in their face or at their back.
The rough will be brutal. Like most U.S. Open venues, if you miss the fairway badly, you will be penalized. This makes the scrambling and bogey avoidance stats even more important than usual because you have to be able to work your way back to a chance for par if you end up in the thick stuff.
An elite player will win. We’ve seen big names win majors when played at a debut venue. Five of the last six winners ranked in the Top 15 of the World Golf Ranking and only one winner since 2000 didn’t have a previous Top 30 finish at a U.S. Open under his belt. But the winner doesn’t necessarily have to have a major championship on his resume since the last six majors have seen a first-time major winner prevail.
Back the front runners during in-play betting: For those of you that like to bet the tournament in-running, keep in mind that, just like at the Masters, you want to back players that get off to a good starts because it”s a daunting task to come from too far behind. How difficult? Well, our friends at Betfair tell us that only one winner this century has come back from more than four strokes off the lead after Round 1 (Webb Simpson in 2012). Simpson is also the only winner in the last 11 years to be outside the top-three after 36 holes and he’s the only U.S. Open champ that was outside the top-12 after two rounds since Larry Nelson won it way back in 1983. The 2007 winner, Angel Cabrera, was four back and T-7 after Saturday’s play but since 1898, only five winners were further down the leaderboard than Cabrera heading into the final round on Sunday, and seven of the last nine winners were in either 1st or 2nd place after 54 holes.
WIth all of that said, here is a sampling of our pick. As always, we recommend playing a quarter or half unit on the “to win” picks since there is so much variance in that market, and to go ahead and play a full unit, or more, on the proposition and match up bets.
If you’re bookie doesn’t accept golf, please visit Harry Bondi’s List of Approved Sportsbooks and take advantage of some their free deposit bonus offers.
Louis Oosthuizen to WIN
40-to-1
Our man “Oozy” is being vastly underrated here, so we’ll gladly grab the 40-to-1 price. He’s in good form this year and ranks 21st in the world. He ranks high in the stats for driving distance and bogey avoidance. He’s from the coast of South Africa, so he doesn’t mind the wind and he’s record in the majors is fantastic, with seven top 25s in 10 starts, including a British Open win at St. Andrews, and a runner up in the British Open (also at St. Andrews) and the Masters.
CLICK HERE: HARRY BONDI’S DAILY FREE PICKS!
Justin Thomas to WIN
30-to-1
While he’s not exactly a household name to the casual golf fan, Thomas ranks 13th in the World Golf Rankings, and has seven Top 10s in his last 15 starts, including three wins. He’s won twice in Hawaii, where wind is always a factor and he his the crap out of the ball, ranking 11th overall in driving distance.
PROP BET
Ricky Fowler Finishing Position – Under 22 1/2 (-110)
Fowler’s record at the U.S. Open is spotty, but he checks all the boxes on the key stats for Erin Hills, including a No. 1 ranking in driving distance. He’s also a great scrambler and plays well in the wind.
MATCHUP BET
Thomas Pieters (-110) over Alex Noren
Pieters is playing his first U.S. Open, but that doesn’t bother us too much since he took 4th this year at the Masters in his Augusta debut. And if you like to bet golfers in good form, Pieters is your man this week. In his last six stroke-play events, he’s got three top 5s, four top 4s and a win. As for Noren, the Swede has also played well as of late, but has not shined in the majors. He has missed the cut in five of his nine-career major starts and in three U.S. Open starts he has never made the cut.