BY HARRY BONDI
For members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team,” the NFL Playoffs have been a cash cow over the last seven seasons, as we have hit 72% of our postseason selections.
So, as we prepare for another money-making Football Sunday, here’s a look at some stats and trends for this weekend’s games.
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Now, onto this weekend’s betting trends:
- Over the last few years, conference championship games have been very close. In fact, only three games in the last six years on Championship Sunday has been decided by more than 10 points. That is a drastic change from previous years. Heading into 2011, 66 percent of the conference championship games (53 of 80) were decided by double digits and 38 of the 80 were decided by 14 points or more.
- Favorites in conference championship games are 50-39-2 (56%) against the spread. Favorites of between 7-9.5 points have had the most success, going 16-7 (65%) against the spread in conference championships since 1970.
- Home teams have won nearly 70 percent (63-28, 69%) of the Conference Championship Games since the merger.
- The underdog has not only covered the spread in six out of the last nine NFC Championship Games, but has also won outright four times. Overall, the underdog in the NFC Championship Game is 10-6 ATS in the last 16 years. The home team has won nine of the last 10 AFC Championship Games while going 8-2 ATS.
- The “under” is 7-2-1 the last six Conference Championship Games, including 4-1-1 the last two years. The AFC Championship Game has gone under in five straight years with the losing team failing to score 20 points in all of those games.
- However, when a Conference Championship Game total is 46 points or higher, the over is 11-6-1. Seven of the last 10 NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged 29 points per game during that span.
- As of Thursday morning, the total in the NFC Championship Game is 60.5, the highest over/under in NFL playoff history and the first time since 2000 an NFL game had a total of 60 or more (Rams beat San Francisco, 34-24, game went under).
- In the NFL this season there have been 268 games played and only 34 of them (13%) saw more than 60 points scored. However, 11 of those 34 involved the Falcons and/or Green Bay, including a 33-32 win by Atlanta on this same field. The total in that game was 51.
- Teams arriving to the championship game following a high scoring output in the previous game tend to struggle the following week. Teams that score 34 or more points in a divisional round have gone 18-18 straight up and just 13-23 ATS in the Conference Championship. Green Bay, Atlanta and New England are all in that situation this week.
- After last week’s win and cover against Houston, which we used as a winner for the “Steam Team,” New England is 4-1 ATS in its last four playoff games, but has still covered just seven of its last 18 playoff games overall, including a 1-6 ATS record in the AFC Championship Game.
- However, since 1981, conference championship home teams who are returning to the game from the previous season are 38-4 straight up and 30-12 at the betting window.