BY HARRY BONDI
Here at Harry Bondi Sports, future bets and proposition bets have been very profitable for me and my clients over the years.
Along with college basketball, they are two of the easiest bets to cash because when hundreds of different wagers are posted, if you do your research, you will find clear mistakes by the oddsmakers.
That’s why we love the Super Bowl because when you bet with a place like BetOnline or Wager Web where they offer more than 300 prop bets on the Super Bowl, it’s easy to isolate on the dozen or so where the line is dead wrong.
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Below, please find a sampling of our Super Bowl Prop Bets for Sunday’s game. To receive the complete report featuring 10 Prop Best Bets, as well as the winner of Sunday’s Patriots-Falcons game, call me right now at 1-877-332-0077.
MATT RYAN – OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS (-110)
Despite a historic season, I don’t think the Falcons’ offense is getting the hype it deserves, and it shows in this number. Because of a classic “bend-but-don’t-break” philosophy, the Pats D has allowed an average of 23 completions per game against the worst schedule of offenses in the league. Think about it: Ten of New England’s 18 games were against some of the worst QBs in the game: Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Landry Jones, Matt Moore, Tyrod Taylor (twice) and Brock Osweiler (twice). Matt Ryan is the best QB they will face this season and the Falcons QB has completed 25 or more passes in 11 of 18 games this season. The Pats will give him plenty of dink and dunk receptions underneath in order to avoid giving up a big play. If the Falcons win, Ryan will have a great game. If the Falcons fall behind, Ryan will be throwing. Go over.
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Harry,
Congrats on a great season. I kicked the shit out of my man this season thanks to you. It’s a good feeling to know I will have plenty of extra money until next football season.
— B.T.., Trenton, NJ
WILL BLOUNT SCORE A TD IN 1ST HALF – YES (+160)
LeGarrette Blount scored a league-leading 18 TDs this season and found the endzone in 14 out of 18 games. With the total in the game posted at 59 points, both teams are expected to have plenty of scoring opportunities and if the Pats get it close, Blount will get the ball. We love the +160 price here for it to happen in the first half.
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DION LEWIS – OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
As much as we like Blount to get a TD in the first half, we fully expect Lewis to be the featured back on Sunday for the Patriots. Lewis didn’t get a ton of action against Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship, so he’s become a forgotten man to fans and bettors this week. But that game was outside in the cold and the Pats had a lead the entire game, which led them to use Blount as a battering ram to kill the clock. In a high-scoring game on slick turf indoors, the shifty Lewis, who is now completely healthy, is going to get his share of carries. Lewis went over 40 yards rushing in all five games this season in which he got 10 or more carries, averaging 47.2 yards per game. Go over.
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WILL THE PATRIOTS CONVERT A 4TH DOWN – YES (+135)
This is expected to be a high-scoring game. The Falcons are going to score points. Everybody knows it, including Bill Belichick, who realizes he needs TDs, not field goals to win this game. With kicker Stephen Gostkowski having a sub par year, Belichick will be going for it on 4th down in those “tweener” situations and the Pats ranked 7th in the league in 4th down conversion rate (66%). Look for Brady to run his classic QB sneak on a 4th-and-short at some point in this game and keep the sticks moving.
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WILL THERE BE A FIELD GOAL IN FIRST QUARTER – YES (-120)
We’ve been harping on the fact that this will be a high-scoring game with both teams knowing they need TDs, not field goals. But Super Bowl game plans tend to be conservative in the early going as the teams feel each other out, like two heavyweights in the first round of a championship fight. Heck, even the NFC Championship Game between the Packers and Falcons was 10-0 after one quarter, before going over the ridiculous total of 60. That’s why of all the quarters in the Super Bowl, we think FGs are more prone to occur early, when neither team is facing a huge deficit and will be more likely to settle for three points.
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