Set your alarm clock and have the coffee machine on timer. It’s British Open Week, and that means for American golf bettors, we’ll be watching the action in the early morning hours, which is never a bad way to start the day.
This year, the Open Championship returns to Carnoustie Golf Links, one of the toughest — and most memorable — courses in the major championship’s rotation.
Each of the last three Open Championships that were held at Carnoustie were decided in a dramatic playoff, most notably 11 years ago when Padraig Harrington comeback win over Sergio Garcia, who missed a putt on the 72nd hole to win his first major, and Frenchman Jean van de Velde absolute meltdown in 1999, when he led by three strokes standing on the 18th tee, but triple-bogeyed and ended up losing in extra holes to Paul Lawrie.
This time, however, the classic links course will play much different than past years when it hosted The British Open. Because of a summer heat wave that his hit the Scotland area, the fairways are burnt out. In fact, some players noted during practice rounds that they may not even hit a driver all week since there is no kind of thick, punishing rough surrounding the fairways, which are running almost as fast as the greens!
Nonetheless, one of our strategy when trying to pick the winner of the British Open is not going to change. We always favor players in good recent form, since it’s difficult to come to an Open Championship course and figure out your game if you are struggling, and those with overall major championship success.
- Six of the last eight British Open winners won a tournament within his last 10 starts that season, and all eight of them had a Top 3 finish or better.
- The last seven winners had at least one previous Top 6 finish at a British Open in their career.
- Only two players since 2000 have won The Open when ranked outside the Top 55 in the official World Golf Ranking entering the week.
- Five of the last six and nine of the last 11 players to lift the Claret Jug had previously won a major in their career.
As for key stats to look for, we’re putting a heavy emphasis on scrambling, since the last five winners have ranked first, fourth, second, seventh and fourth in that category, and Harrington topped the scrambling stats when he won here in 2007.
As always, we’ll playing a half unit on the “To Win” bets and anywhere from one to three units on “Match-up Bets,” where there is much more value and less variance.
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Dustin Johnson TO WIN at 12-to-1
We typically do not play favorites when betting the majors, but we just can’t resist a wager here on DJ, who checks ALL of the above boxes. In addition to ranking No. 1 in the world, Mrs. Gretzky is No. 8 on TOUR in scrambling, he’s got a major on his resume, he’s made the cut at The Open in eight straight starts with three Top 10s, and in his last four starts he has four top 20s, three top 10s and a victory.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCH-UPS
Patrick Reed (-105) over Tyrell Hatton
Reed, who ranks 19th on TOUR in scrambling, doesn’t have a storied past at The Open (four starts, two missed cuts, a 12th and a 20th), but he’s all of a sudden become a guy you want to be “on” when the majors roll around. Not only did he win this year’s Masters, but he was fourth at the U.S. Open and in the last three majors he’s a combined 17-under-par, nine strokes better than anyone else. He played the Scottish Open last week and took 23rd, so he’s acclimated to the weather and body clock change. Hatton, meanwhile, is ranked 87th in scrambling and has missed the cut in five of his six British Open starts. In addition to this match-up, we’ll play a half-unit on Reed to win at 30-to-1.
BET IT NOW AT WAGER WEB SPORTSBOOK
Alex Noren (-110) over Justin Thomas
We’re fond of Thomas after he cashed in for us at 15-to-1 odds in the PGA Championship last year, but we don’t like his chances this week. This will be just his third British Open start with a 53rd and a missed cut. Noren, a links course specialist, has four wins since the second half of 2016, including the Scottish Open at The Castle in 2016, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in 2017 and the Open de France earlier this month. In the last four Opens has a T-9 at Lytham in 2012 and T-6 at Royal Birkdale last year. And when he teed it up at Carnoustie in 2016 he broke the course record by firing a 64. In addition to this match-up, we’ll play a half-unit on Noren to win at 25-to-1.