BY HARRY BONDI
Harry Bondi Sports has been the best NFL Playoff handicappers in the country over the last eight years — and it’s not even close.
Since the 2009, we have gone a profitable 56-11 (84%) in the NFL postseason. Many of my fellow handicappers in the industry have reached out to me over the years to find out how we have enjoyed so much success and the reason is quite simple: Our approach to handicapping football is unlike any other service.
We study hours of game film. We read every team’s hometown newspapers and we work the phones, speaking with a countless number of NFL beat writers, broadcasters and Las Vegas veterans. We pour over the tens of thousand of stats and trends in our database. While we would never make a selection on a game based solely on numbers, there are a few compelling numbers found below that are worth paying attention to over the next four weeks before our next Super Bowl champion is crowned.
We went 15-3 ATS in the NFL in the last five weeks of the regular season and I guarantee we will remain red hot in the playoffs.
If you would like to receive our official plays for the NFL Playoffs, call me today at 1.877.332.0077 and we’ll put you in the “Steam Team” through the Super Bowl for just $149 and we’ll include our selection in Monday night’s National Championship game between Alabama and Georgia for FREE!
FORGET THE SPREAD, PICK THE WINNER
Over the last six playoff seasons, the spread has only came into play 12 times in 66 games. This is not uncommon.
In fact, since 1978, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all NFL Playoff games 84.3% of the time and since 1980 the straight-up winner in opening round covers the pointspread a whopping 90% of the time (117-13-15).
In the last nine years, the straight-up winner in the Wild Card Round has gone 35-3-2 ATS and since 1996 home favorites in the Wild Card round that win outright are 61-14-4 ATS.
But there is cause for pause this weekend with all four favorites right around a TD favorite. Since 1990, Wild Card home favorites are just 10-10 when the line is between 6 and 9.5 points.
CLICK HERE for HARRY’S DAILY FREE PICK!
DON’T OVERREACT TO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
For the last month you’ve heard the sports radio blowhards go on and on about how certain teams were fighting for the top seed in the playoffs and the all-important “home field advantage.” But when it comes to betting the NFL Playoffs, the home edge isn’t quite as important to the almighty pointspread as you might think.
Since 2002, home teams are just 70-76-2 (48%) ATS in the NFL Playoffs, and that includes last year when they went 8-2 ATS.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE MATTERS IN THE WILDCARD ROUND
Since 2002 — the year the NFL went to its current playoff format with 32 teams and eight divisions — the wildcard playoff team with the stronger strength of schedule have gone 40-16 (71%) both against the spread and straight up, but keep in mind that this trend went just 1-3 ATS last year. Has the pointspread finally caught up to this system? We shall see.
This year, the wild card teams with the better strength of schedule are Kansas City and Buffalo in the AFC and Atlanta and Carolina in the NFC.
BLOWOUTS ARE COMMONPLACE
Twenty-three of the last 48 NFL Wild card Playoff Games and half of all Wild Card games (65 of 128) since 1978 have been decided by 14 points or more.
Same goes for the divisional playoff round where teams have covered the spread by double digits in 20 of the last 44 games.
DON’T BANK ON THE TOP SEED PREVAILING
While the No. 1 seed from each conference has advanced to the Super Bowl in each of the past four seasons, the overall No. 1 seed has has won just three of the last 14 Super Bowls (New England last year and in 2003 and New Orleans in 2009), and in the 10 seasons prior to that streak, the No. 1 seeds won the Super Bowl seven times.
Also, at least one of the teams that received a first-round bye has lost in the divisional round in 11 of the last 12 years (last year both Kansas City and Dallas lost). And finally, 10 wild card teams have advanced to the Super Bowl, and six have gone all the way to win it. Since the 32-team realignment in 2002, three wild card teams have won the Super Bowl.