Barring the unforeseen, Justify will win the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.
The 1-to-2 heavy morning line favorite is the clearly the class of the eight-horse field and it would be a huge upset if he didn’t prevail when the dust settles at Pimlico Race Course.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t make some money betting the race.
Yes, even though we fully expect the big favorite to come out on top as it has at the Preakness more than half the time dating back to 1876, history also strongly suggests that a longshot — or two — will come in the money, and that’s where we can cash in.
Why do we feel so strongly about this? Well, first off, the top two favorites haven’t finished 1-2 at the Preakness since 1981. So anyone who tells you Saturday will be a two-horse race between Justify and Good Magic simply isn’t paying attention.
What’s more, over the last five years, eight of the 15 horses that have come in the money had double-digit odds. Going back even further, in 13 of the last 18 years there has been at least one horse with double-digit odds to finish in the top 2 and in 11 out of those 18 years the exacta has paid $80 or more. Not bad for a $2 bet.
So, how will we bet the Preakness this year? We will definitely have Justify at the top of all of our exotic wagers. We’ll fill in the rest with some three longshot picks and hope to cash in just as we did two weeks ago when we used Good Magic as the place horse in the Kentucky Derby as a nice 9-to-1 payday.
One of those long shots will be Lone Sailor at 15-to-1. First of all, we tend to favor horses in the Preakness that also ran in the Kentucky Derby, since, there have only been four Preakness winners in the last 28 years who did not run the Derby.
Secondly, if you go back and watch this year’s Kentucky Derby, Lone Sailor had an awful trip, getting stuck behind a dead horse and jammed on the rail. He showed a glimpse of promise when he finally got loose, but it was too little, too late. If he gets a clean trip in the Preakness, Lone Sailor will be a factor because he is a closer, and this race and this track favors closers.
We will, without a doubt, be using Lone Sailor prominently on our Preakness betting card.
We have two more long shots on Saturday that we believe will be factors in the Preakness. To receive them, pick up the phone and call Harry Bondi right now at 1-877-332-0077.
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