BY HARRY BONDI
The NFL Playoffs have been a cash cow over the last nine years for members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team,” as we have hit 80% of our postseason selections.
So, as we prepare for another profitable Football Sunday, here’s a look at some stats and trends for this weekend’s games.
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Now, onto this weekend’s NFL Playoff betting trends:
- Overall, favorites have ruled in the conference championships, going 63-30 straight up and 52-39-2 (57%) against the spread. Favorites of between 7-9.5 points have had the most success, going 17-7 (71%) against the spread in conference championships since 1970.
- Home teams have won 70% (65-28) of the Conference Championship Games since the merger and since 1980 No. 1 seeds are 28-12 straight up, including a sparkling 7-0 record the last four years. Home dogs in the conference championship, like the Eagles on Sunday, however, have covered just six of their last 14 tries.
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- Last year, the “Steam Team” swept the card in the conference championship games and both games were blowouts with Atlanta (-6) easily handling Green Bay, 44-21, and New England (-6) rolling past Pittsburgh, 36-17. But in the previous six years, only three games of the 12 Championship Sunday were decided by more than 10 points.
- But, overall, these games have trended toward blowouts with 43 of the 93 Conference Championship Games in NFL history being decided by 14 points or more.
- The underdog has not only covered the spread in six out of the last 10 NFC Championship Games, but has also won outright four times. Overall, the underdog in the NFC Championship Game is 10-7 ATS in the last 17 years. The home team has won nine of the last 10 AFC Championship Games while going 9-2 ATS.
- The “under” is 7-4-1 the last eight Conference Championship Weekends. The AFC Championship Game has gone under in five of the last six years with the losing team failing to score 20 points in all of those games.
- However, when a Conference Championship Game total is 46 points or higher, the over is 13-6-1. Eight of the last 11 NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged over 30 points per game during that span.
- Teams arriving to the championship game following a high scoring output in the previous game tend to struggle the following week. Teams that score 34 or more points in a divisional round have gone 20-19 straight up and just 15-24 ATS in the Conference Championship. Since 1996, teams that score 40 or more points in a NFL playoff game, as the Jags did last week, are just 4-25-1 ATS the following week.
- After last week’s win and cover against Tennessee, which we used as a winner for the “Steam Team,” New England is 7-1 ATS in its last eight playoff games, but has still covered just 10 of its last 21 playoff games overall, including a 2-6 ATS record in the AFC Championship Game.
- However, since 1981, conference championship home teams who are returning to the game from the previous season (like the Patriots this week) are 39-4 straight up and 31-12 at the betting window.
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