While the venue may change each year for the British Open — or the Open Championship, which it is properly called — the strategy for picking winners does not. The most important factor in picking a British Open contender is recent form. History shows it’s nearly impossible to come to an Open Championship course and play well enough to win if you are currently struggling.
To wit:
- Seven of the last nine British Open winners won a tournament within his last 10 starts that season, and all nine of them had a Top 4 finish or better.
- The last seven winners had at least one previous Top 10 finish at a British Open in their career.
- Only two players since 2000 have won The Open when ranked outside the Top 55 in the official World Golf Ranking entering the week.
- Five of the last seven and nine of the last 12 players to lift the Claret Jug had previously won a major in their career.
- As for the one key statistic to look at, it’s scrambling, since none of the last six winners ranked lower than seventh in that stat for the week.
In addition to the above, there are two other crucial factors to keep in mind this week when handicapping the British Open:
The Weather: This is going to be the biggest factor in this tourney. It’s going to rain every day for the next two weeks. And since this ain’t the John Deere Classic, the winner will have to be an experienced player who is used to the wet conditions. Additionally, you want to pick players who are comfortable with delays as there are likely to be plenty of them this week.
The Course: There hasn’t been an Open here at Royal Portrush since the 50s, so most players haven’t played here before. But that doesn’t mean the best players in the world won’t score here; the course isn’t really that challenging.
As always, we’ll playing a half unit on the “To Win” bets and anywhere from one to three units on “Match-up Bets,” where there is much more value and less variance. If you need a sportsbook that accepts golf wagers, visit Harry’s List of Approved Offshore Sportsbooks where you can take advantage of some Deposit Bonus Offers and Free Bets.
Now, on to the picks:
Henrik Stenson to win at 25-to-1
The big Swede checks all of the above boxes and more. With the weather the way it is, ball striking will come at a premium. Who is better than Henrik? Tee to green, he was incredible at the Scottish Open last week, but he just couldn’t hit any putts, and somehow still finished fourth. His previous start to the Scottish Open was a T-9 in the U.S. Open so his form is quite good. The 2016 champ has played in 13 Open Championships and has four top 5 finishes and six in the top 13. Love the price here!
Other picks to win:
Jon Rahm (14-to-1) : He won the Irish Open and has been in Europe for a while now. He is the most talented player to not win a major and this may be his breakthrough moment.
Justin Thomas (25-to-1): He played well last week in the Scottish Open. The question is, is he actually healthy? I think yes, so there is value.
Tommy Fleetwood (26-to-1): European ball strike extraordinaire, need I say more?
Long shot: Haotong Li at 75-to-1
Match-up Bets
Gary Woodland (-185) over Graeme McDowell
There is no reason why Woodland shouldn’t be at least -300 here. People just buy into the train of thought that McDowell is from Northern Ireland so he’s definitely going to play well. No shot. What’s more, he’s missed the cut in each of the last two weeks. The price is right!
Other match-up bets:
Haotong Lee (-124) over Lee Westwood
Justin Thomas (-114) over Patrick Cantlay
Fading Rory McIlroy
I get it. It’s pretty bold to fade the favorite, who not only set the course record at Portrush when he was 15 years old, but has finished 2nd, 4th, 5th and 1st in his last four Open Championship starts. However, this is not a course for bombers, it doesn’t play as long as the yardage. So while Rory will be receiving quite a bit of betting support, his short game will let him down.
Play Jon Rahm (+145) over McIlroy