kentucky
BY GREG TURNER
Man, have things taken a dramatic turn in recent years when it comes to picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby.
After watching the post-time Kentucky Derby favorite fail to win from 1980 to 1999, the chalk has now prevailed six straight years (the longest such streak since 1891) and in eight of the last 14 years. What’s more, we have now had two Triple Crown winners in the last four years (American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify last year) after not seeing a horse win all three jewels since 1978.
Having said all of that, this year’s Derby is a wide open race, especially after yesterday’s news that favorite Omaha Beach has been scratched with entrapped epiglottis. Toss in the fact that the Louisville area is going to get hit with some heavy rains over the next few days and that we could see a sloppy track, and it becomes pretty clear that we’re in for an interesting race on Saturday afternoon.
Our Kentucky Derby picks here at Harry Bondi Sports will be part of one of the biggest weekends we have seen in years. Along with the Run for the Roses, we will also be releasing our 2019 Major League Baseball “Lock of the Year,” as well as our first 5-Star NBA Playoff “Lock” of the 2019 postseason.
You can receive the entire weekend of picks – Baseball, Basketball and Horses – for JUST $99. It’s the bargain of the century, so pick up the phone and call Harry Bondi right now at 1-877-332-0077!
In the meantime, below are some key Kentucky Derby betting trends, as well as a look at who we may end up using on Saturday
Avoid certain posts
Since 1964 only one winner (Ferdinand, 1986) has come from the No. 1 post and in 2018 runner-up Lookin’ at Lee became the first horse in 19 years to come in the money from the inside post. Three other posts to avoid: Big Brown (2008) is the only horse to prevail from the No. 20 hole, the last time a horse in the 14 block won the Derby came way back in 1961 and the horse with No. 17 draped on it is on a miserable 0-for-39 streak.
The 10 and 5 have been prosperous
While the best starting post in Kentucky Derby history has been the 10, the No. 5 post has a winning percentage of over 10% and has the best average finish in Derby history. This has been especially true in recent years. The fifth post has won the race twice since 2014 and has been in the top five in five-straight years: Audible showed last year, Always Dreaming won the Kentucky Derby in 2017, Gun Runner was third in 2016, Danzig Moon was fifth in 2015 and California Chrome won the roses in 2014.
Ride the momentum
The Kentucky Derby winner is typically in good form coming into the first Saturday in May. Every Derby winner since 2011 entered the race with a win in its last start and an astounding 42 of the last 43 winners had at least a top-three finish or was within four lengths of the victor in its last race.
kentuckyHorses to Watch
The best way to handicap a horse race is by process of elimination, especially when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, which will have as many as 20 horses in the field. We have already gone through and “tossed out” over half the field. Below, are six horses we’ll be looking to include in our wagering package. To get our official card and best bets, call 1-877-332-0077 right now. Hurry! Post time is on Saturday a 6:50 p.m. ET!
5. Improbable (6-to-1): After reading the above, you’re probably not surprised we’re seriously looking at the 5 horse, but there’s much more to like here above and beyond the starting post. We’ll start with the fact that he’s trained by Bob Baffert. With five career starts, Improbable was undefeated in three starts as a two-year-old and has two second-place finishes by a nose as a three-year-old, including a place at the Arkansas Derby. The only question is whether or not the son of City Zip who has the same trainer and owner as last year’s Triple Crown winner can handle the distance. We shall see.
7. Maximum Security (8-to-1): Luis Saez will ride the horse that is undefeated in four starts, including a perfect trip in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. If it’s a muddy track, we like his chances even more since he has some of the best speed in the field and may jump ahead early, and it’s difficult for trailing horses to make up ground on a sloppy track. However, we worry if he has the discipline to hold back and save some energy for the stretch run. If Saez can make that happen, Maximum Security will be in the mix.
8. Tacitus (8-to-1): This is a horse that is surging, winning its last three starts, including taking home the coveted Wood Memorial and coming from way behind to prevail at the Tampa Bay Derby. Tacitus had to work hard to win both of those races, which means he can handle adversity, and that’s huge since the Derby is rarely a clean race. Love the 8-to-1 price as of this writing and highly doubt it will be there at post time.
13. Code of Honor (12-to1): We were in Saratoga last summer when Code of Honor won the MSW race with John Velazquez as the jockey and we promised ourselves that if they made it to the Kentucky Derby together they would be a play. Well, here we are. Since that August 2018 race, Code of Honor won the Fountain of Youth, and also took third at the Florida Derby after getting bumped on the first turn. Loved the way he closed in that race and we hope he can do the same on Saturday. May not win outright – no horse born in June or later has won the Derby – but will be a factor.
14. Win Win Win (12-to-1): He broke the track record in Tampa Bay and is one of the best closers in the field so the distance is not a worry. What is a concern? His runner-up finish at the Blue Grass Stakes in April may be a negative since a horse that ran in that race hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since 1991.
16. Game Winner (9-to-2): The new favorite in the race has two places in his two starts this year, but both were by a nose. He was undefeated as a two-year-old, winning all four starts, and he won at this track in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, which is a huge advantage. Didn’t get lucky with the post position, but if he doesn’t fall too far off the pace in the first half of the race on what might be a muddy surface we could very well see a seventh-straight favorite in the winner’s circle on Saturday.