Simply put, the NFL Playoffs have been a cash cow for all members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team.”
Since the 2009, we have gone 59-18-1 (77%) in the NFL postseason. Many of my fellow handicappers in the industry have reached out to me over the years to find out how we have enjoyed so much success and the reason is quite simple: Our approach to handicapping football is unlike any other service.
We study hours of game film. We read every team’s hometown newspapers and we work the phones, speaking with a countless number of NFL beat writers, broadcasters and Las Vegas veterans. We pour over the tens of thousand of stats and trends in our database. While we would never make a selection on a game based solely on numbers, there are a few compelling numbers found below that are worth paying attention to over the next four weeks before our next Super Bowl champion is crowned.
Over the last 14 weeks of the football season, we have gone 74-44 (63%), including a 13-7 (65%) record in the college bowl games. If history repeats itself, we will remain red hot in the NFL playoffs.
If you would like to receive our official plays for the NFL Playoffs, call me today at 1.877.332.0077 and we’ll put you in the “Steam Team” through the Super Bowl for just $149 and we’ll include our selection in Monday night’s National Championship Game between Alabama and Clemson for FREE!
1. FORGET THE SPREAD, PICK THE WINNER
Last year was a bit of an anomolly as the pointspread actually came into play in four of the 11 NFL Playoff games.
Even still, since 1978, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all NFL Playoff games 82% of the time and since 1980 the straight-up winner in opening round still covers the pointspread a whopping 89.8% of the time (124-17-15). For frame of reference, in the regular season the pointspread typically comes into play 83% of the time. This year, of course, we have three pointspreads under three points in the Wildcard Round, so this trend isn’t quite as important.
In the last nine years, the straight-up winner in the Wild Card Round has gone 36-6-2 ATS, but since 1990 Wild Card home favorites are just 10-13 ATS when the line is between 6 and 9.5 points.
2. STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE MATTERS IN WILDCARD ROUND
Since 2002 — the year the NFL went to its current playoff format with 32 teams and eight divisions — the wildcard playoff team with the stronger strength of schedule according to Sagarin Ratings have gone 43-17 (72%) against the spread. Two years ago this trend went just 1-3 ATS, but last year it bounced back to go 3-1 ATS.
This year, the wild card teams with the better strength of schedule are Baltimore and Houston in the AFC and Philadelphia and Dallas in the NFC.
3. DON’T OVERREACT TO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
For the last month you’ve heard the sports radio blowhards go on and on about how certain teams were fighting for the top seed in the playoffs and the all-important “home field advantage.” But when it comes to betting the NFL Playoffs, the home edge isn’t quite as important to the almighty pointspread as you might think.
Since 2002, home teams are just 72-84-2 (46%) ATS in the NFL Playoffs, including last year when they went 2-8 ATS.
4. DON’T BANK ON ALL OF THE TOP SEEDS PREVAILING
While the No. 1 seed from each conference has advanced to the Super Bowl in each of the past five seasons, at least one of the teams that received a first-round bye has lost in the divisional round in 11 of the last 12 years. And finally, 10 wild card teams have advanced to the Super Bowl, and six have gone all the way to win it.