Using a “Lock” as a marketing tool is one of the oldest tricks in the book for sports services.
There are plenty of dishonest touts out there (call me at 1-877-332-0077 to make sure you’re not using one, or thinking of joining one) and most of them schedule “Lock of the Year” type plays nearly every weekend as a way to fool uneducated football bettors into joining their service, when in reality the so-called “Lock” they are releasing is just a random game, not something they have researched with more importance than any other game.
This is one of the many things that sets me apart from most handicappers in the sports betting industry.
Go ahead and ask my longtime clients, some who have been with me for all 33 years of my career. I do not use the word “Lock” lightly. When I give out a “Lock” game, you can be confident that my staff and I have done hundreds of hours of work on. It’s a game we spotted more than a month ago. We’ve followed the two teams, we speak to the contacts and media members we have that are close to both teams and their opponents and we are in constant contact with our Las Vegas sportsbook employees and syndicate bettors, keeping an eye on who likes the game and who may be moving the line as we creep closer to kickoff.
There is a formula I used when picking a game as a “Lock of the Year” game. If the game can’t meet every item of this criterion, it can’t be a “Lock of the Year.” It’s that simple.
I am 100% confident this year’s 10-Star College “Lock of the Year” meets the below checklist.
So, confident, that I’m willing to guarantee it.
Call me and speak to me in person for all of the details: 1-877-332-0077. You can receive the “Lock of the Year” for $99, or even better, ride with us through the end of November for JUST $400.
1. MOTIVATION
Let’s face it. When you’re betting on sports – especially a bunch of college kids – you want to be “on” a team that’s motivated and ready to play.
In 2011, our “Lock of the Year” was Oklahoma (-13) over Texas A&M. After three quarters, the Sooners led 41-10, gave up 15 points in garbage time before rolling to an easy 41-25 victory. Oklahoma was extremely motivated for that game because it was playing in Norman for the first time since its 39-game home winning streak ended with a loss to Texas Tech two weeks prior. Head coach Bob Stoops was banging the drum all week to his players that they simply had to protect their home turf and it was obvious his team listened loud and clear.
This Saturday, we have a team that will not be overlooking an opponent. This is game they have been pointing toward since the start of the season for a variety of reasons and we are sure to get a fully focused effort, not just on game day, but throughout this week of practice. This is a team that will be locked, loaded and ready to play on Saturday.
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2. SCHEDULING
My staff and I begin sorting through every college football team’s schedule as soon as they are released, almost six months before the season kicks off. We look to isolate on certain spots where we think it will be advantageous to go with or against that team. It doesn’t matter that the games are 10 months away, you can already get a handle on whether a team is going to be ready to play or not just by who and where they played the week before and the week after. Those spots become even more glaring as the games begin to play out.
You never want to be on a team that’s playing a hated rival the next week. You never want to be on a team that’s playing a third-straight road game. For the most part, you like to be on a team coming off a bye or had a bye in the last month. These are just a few of the rules I follow, but the bottom line is this: Don’t unload on a team if they aren’t in a great scheduling “spot.”
3. COACHING
The players and how they execute will typically decide if you win or lose a bet, but coaching has A LOT to do with it as well.
There are certain coaches out there that I would NEVER use in a “Lock” game. In fact, those same coaches are the ones that I like to try and go against on big plays.
Then there is the list of coaches that I always try and give a solid look toward to use for a “Lock” game. And I’m not just talking about how good they are at preparing for a game and the decisions they make with Xs and Os during the game.
I’m also looking for coaches who aren’t going to be afraid to put their foot on the neck of an opponent. You also have to investigate the relationship the head coach has with the opposing head coach or school. If they are buddies, be careful if you’re taking the big favorite.
The coaching fraternity is a close one and nobody likes to embarrass a close friend or former assistant. On the other hand, if there is genuine dislike, don’t be afraid to lay some lumber.
4. LINE PLAY
It’s a cliché, but it’s true. Football is won and lost in the trenches, especially late in the season when teams are getting tired and battling injuries.
In 2016, our 10-Star “Lock of the Year” was Arkansas (+3.5) over Florida in a 31-10 laugher. One aspect of the game we knew the Hogs would win was the line of scrimmage. We saw on film just how undersized and depleted Florida was in the trenches while the strength of Arkansas has been its line play for the last few seasons. Sure enough, the Hogs pushed around the Gators all day long. On offense, Arkansas nearly doubled Florida’s time of possession (39:21 to 20:39) and wore out the Florida defense in the second half. Florida, which lead the nation in fewest plays of more than 10 yards allowed, gave up 17 in the loss. On the other side of the ball, the Florida offensive line continued to struggle and could not run block and got held to a season-low 12 yards rushing. The Florida offense managed only 3 points, bringing its grand total to 23 points in its last 10 quarters on the road.
In 2009, we had Wisconsin (-8) over Michigan as our 10-Star “Lock” and a big part of that handicap was that we knew the Badgers offensive line outweighed Michigan’s by nearly 40 pounds per man. The Badgers had the top rushing attack in the Big 10 and Michigan had the worst defensive line. Michigan’s offensive line was also beginning to wear down and it was evident as I watched game films of their previous three games. Then I heard from a friend in Michigan who is close to the team who told me that one of the assistants on the Wolverine staff told him that they were going to be “overwhelmed” by Wisconsin’s size.
If you watched the game, you saw it. Michigan hung in there for a half, but in the second half they were indeed “overwhelmed” and ended up losing 45-34. And it all started in the trenches.
5. INJURIES
Everyone says they check the injury report, but do they look at anything more than just the skill position players? ESPN and the local papers will report all day long about a starting QB being out or a running back with a bad ankle.
Those are the kinds of injuries that will move the line. But very few people – including the oddsmakers – pay much attention to injuries on the offensive line or to the place kicker. When you spot an injury don’t just stop your investigation with simply uncovering who is going to be on the sidelines. Find out who the replacement is. A quarterback can be replaced if the backup is a decent player with experience. But, in some cases, a backup player in a key position may not be ready for prime time.
In 2013, our “Lock of the Year” was Missouri (-10) over Tennessee. When the Vols announced they were going to start true freshman QB Josh Dobbs, our team insiders told us the kid would be in over his head because he’d be making his first-career start in a hostile environment. Sure enough, Dobbs had a “deer in the headlights” look on his face the entire game, turning the ball over three times. The Tigers were in control from start to finish, jumping out to a 24-3 lead and ended up winning 31-3.
All of the above ingredients are in play this Saturday. We have found an underrated team, playing in a great spot against a banged-up opponent that is having some issues both on and off the field.