BY HARRY BONDI
Every tout across America has used the “Lock of the Year” gimmick.
Some of them seem to have about 10 “Lock of the Year” games per season in order to fool uneducated football bettors into joining their service. In reality these so-called “Lock” they are releasing are just random games, not something they have researched or probably even thought about in the previous days or weeks leading up. And I can guarantee most of these “handicappers” don’t put their own money on their own picks.
This is what sets me apart from my so-called “competition” in the sports betting industry.
As many of my longtime clients will tell you, I do not use the word “Lock” lightly. When I give out a “Lock” game, you can be confident that my staff and I have done hundreds of hours of work on.
It’s a game we spotted more than a month ago. We’ve followed the two teams, we speak to the contacts and media members we have that are close to both teams and their opponents and we are in constant contact with our Las Vegas sportsbook employees and syndicate bettors, keeping an eye on who likes the game and who may be moving the line as we creep closer to kickoff.
There is a formula I used when picking a game as a “Lock of the Year” game. If the game can’t meet every item of this criterion, it can’t be a “Lock of the Year.” It’s that simple.
I am 100% confident this year’s 10-Star College “Lock of the Year” meets the below checklist.
So, confident, that I’m willing to guarantee it.
Call me and speak to me in person for all of the details: 1-877-332-0077. You can receive the “Lock of the Year” for $99, or even better, ride with us through the end of November for JUST $400.
1. MOTIVATION
Betting on college sports can be frustrating because you are basically trying to guess when a group of 19 and 20 year olds are going to want to come together and put forth a cohesive effort. One way to ensure that a team will be fully focused and ready for a game is if they are motivated more than usual.
In 2011, our “Lock of the Year” was Oklahoma (-13) over Texas A&M, 41-25. We knew Oklahoma was extremely motivated for that game because it was playing in Norman for the first time since its 39-game home winning streak ended with a loss to Texas Tech two weeks prior. Head coach Bob Stoops told his players all week — both publicly and privately — that they simply had to protect their home turf and it was obvious his team listened loud and clear.
This Saturday’s “Lock of the Year” team is playing a game it has pointed toward since spring practice for a variety of reasons. We are certain that this team is already having a great week of practice and will be ready to play its best game of the season when the ball kicks off.
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2. SCHEDULING
About six months ago, the final schedules for every college team was finalized and as soon as we got our hands on them, my staff and I began sorting through. Even if we don’t know the pointspread on a game that won’t take place for three months, we can still isolate certain spots where we think it will be advantageous to go with or against that team. You can already get a handle on whether a team is going to be ready to play or not just by who and where they played the week before and the week after.
As a general rule, we never want to be betting a team that’s playing a big rival the following week. We never want to bet on a team that’s playing consecutive road games or multiple games away from home over the course of four weeks. Most teams have the luxury of having at least one bye week this year and when those bye weeks are scheduled are crucial. Bottom line: Don’t unload on a team if they aren’t in a great scheduling spot.
3. COACHING
There are certain coaches out there that I would NEVER use in a “Lock” game. In fact, those same coaches are the ones that I like to try and go against on big plays.
Then there is the list of coaches that I always try and give a solid look toward to use for a “Lock” game. And I’m not just talking about how good they are at preparing for a game and the decisions they make with Xs and Os during the game.
I’m also looking for coaches who aren’t going to be afraid to step on the neck of an opponent. You also have to investigate the relationship the head coach has with the opposing head coach or school. If they are buddies, be careful if you’re taking the big favorite.
The coaching fraternity is a close one and nobody likes to embarrass a close friend or former assistant. On the other hand, if there is genuine dislike, don’t be afraid to lay some lumber.
4. LINE PLAY
It’s a cliché, but it’s true. Football is won and lost in the trenches.
In 2016, our 10-Star “Lock of the Year” was Arkansas (+3.5) over Florida in a 31-10 laugher. One aspect of the game we knew the Hogs would win was the line of scrimmage. We saw on film just how undersized and depleted Florida was in the trenches while the strength of Arkansas has been its line play for the last few seasons. Sure enough, the Hogs pushed around the Gators all day long. On offense, Arkansas nearly doubled Florida’s time of possession (39:21 to 20:39) and wore out the Florida defense in the second half. Florida, which lead the nation in fewest plays of more than 10 yards allowed, gave up 17 in the loss. On the other side of the ball, the Florida offensive line continued to struggle and could not run block and got held to a season-low 12 yards rushing. The Florida offense managed only 3 points, bringing its grand total to 23 points in its last 10 quarters on the road.
This Saturday we have a match-up where one team has a distinct advantage over its opponent along BOTH the offensive and defensive lines and, as an added bonus, the team we are going against is battling some not-so-public nagging injuries in the trenches.
5. INJURIES
Speaking of injuries, anyone with a computer and an internet connection can find out if a starting QB or star running back is going to miss a game or play with a bum ankle.
But very few people – including the oddsmakers – pay much attention to injuries on the offensive line or a kicker. When you spot an injury don’t just stop your investigation with simply uncovering who is going to be on the sidelines. Find out who the replacement is. A quarterback can be replaced if the backup is a decent player with experience. But, in some cases, a backup player in a key position may not be ready for prime time.
In 2013, our “Lock of the Year” was Missouri (-10) over Tennessee. When the Vols announced they were going to start true freshman QB Josh Dobbs, our team insiders told us the kid would be in over his head because he’d be making his first-career start in a hostile environment. Sure enough, Dobbs had a “deer in the headlights” look on his face the entire game, turning the ball over three times. The Tigers were in control from start to finish, jumping out to a 24-3 lead and ended up winning 31-3.
All of the above ingredients are in play this Saturday. We have found an underrated team, playing in a great spot against a banged-up opponent that is having some issues both on and off the field.