BY HARRY BONDI
Handicapping college bowl games is unlike anything else in sports betting.
Think about it. There is no other sport that takes a one-month break between the regular season and the postseason. It’s a situation that changes the dynamic of the game – and how you handicap – because a lot more needs to be considered when both teams are given multiple weeks to prepare for an opponent rather than just six or seven days.
One thing that hasn’t changed is the way my staff and I prepare for these games. Over the next four weeks, there will be 41 bowl games involving 80 teams. It all starts this Saturday, Dec. 15 and culminates with the National Championship Game on Monday, Jan. 7.
We have been breaking down the matchups ever since they were released a few weeks ago and have already been speaking with our contacts and media friends from every bowl team on a daily basis. So far, we have spotted 13 games where my power ratings have the pointspread OFF by 7 points or more!
As we inch closer to releasing our first bowl selection this Saturday and narrow down the choices for our Annual College Bowl “Lock of the Year” selection, which has been an EASY WINNER seven out of the last nine years, here are five things every handicapper should take into consideration during the bowl season.
If you would like to cash in on the college bowl games, by becoming a member of our “Steam Team” for JUST $300, call me directly in my office today at 1-877-332-0077 and not only will we give you ALL of our bowl picks, but we’ll also include the final three weeks of the NFL regular season and the NFL playoffs!
If you’re looking for a place to wager on the bowl games, the best place to do so is with our approved offshore sportsbooks, which will give you the chance to bet the games before the lines move as well as offer HUGE BONUS DEPOSIT OFFERS.
Now, let’s go bowling …
1. Coaching
This is one of the most crucial aspects to consider when handicapping bowl games. The extended time off magnifies how well a team prepares for the game. Some coaches are very good with extra preparation time. Others not so good.
There are also many scenarios where head coaches have bolted for another job, leaving behind an interim coach or a new head coach to take over for the bowl game.
A few examples this year include Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield leaving the Mountaineers to be the head man at Louisville and Matt Wells leaving Utah State the take the job at Texas Tech. There have been 58 bowl games with an interim coach since 2005. In those games, the replacement coaches are 28-30 straight up (SU) and 27-30-1 (47.3%) against the spread.
You need to look at recent history to see if the coaching matchup in a certain bowl game can be exploited. And try to stay away from head coaches who are taking a team to a bowl game for the first time. There are a ton of outside factors – aside from actual Xs and Os – that make bringing a team to a bowl game much more demanding.
Some coaches are better than others at this balancing act. Marshall’s Doc Holliday is 5-0 against the spread in bowl games while Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 8-3 ATS, including 5-1 as an underdog. Ohio State’s outgoing head coach Urban Meyer is not only 10-3 ATS in bowl games, but when given extra time to prepare in his career his teams are an amazing 50-4 straight up and 38-13 ATS.
On the other end of the spectrum, Washington State’s Mike Leach is 1-7 ATS in eight career bowl games, Rod Carey from Northern Illinois is 0-5 and Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly has been an bust in bowl games, going just 3-7 ATS in his career.
2. Underdogs & Military Teams
Underdogs are typically worth an extra look in bowl games. When favorites hit 60% in 2015-16 it was an aberration. Last year, dogs went just 20-20 ATS but 16 of those dogs won outright. In the 10 years between 2004 and 2014, underdogs hit 57%. Also, over the last 10 years double-digit underdogs in pre-New Year’s Day have gone 49-33-2 (60%) and that includes an 0-3 record from last year.
Historically, military academies have also been a great bet in bowl games. Air Force, Army and Navy are a combined 32-15 (69%) ATS in bowl games over the years, including a whopping 20-4 ATS when facing an opponent with a record that’s .600 or better.
CLICK HERE FOR HARRY’S DAILY FREE PICK
3. Motivation
Having a month off to prepare for a game can also be a bad thing because certain teams won’t be excited about going to a faraway place where it’s colder than at home to play what they may deem as a meaningless game.
You have to keep these things in mind and that’s why it’s so important to follow these teams closely to find out where the players’ and coaching staffs’ mindset is.
Meanwhile, there are some teams out there that are simply excited to play in any bowl game, no matter where or when it is being played. Those are the types of teams that we’ll give extra consideration to being “on” because we know we’ll get their best effort.
4. The Venue
Sometimes teams will have an edge by playing at a stadium that is more familiar to them than their opponent, or by playing closer to home so they will attract more fans.
South Florida (Gasparilla Bowl), Houston (Armed Forces Bowl) and Troy (Dollar General Bowl) Hawaii (Hawaii Bowl) and Baylor (Texas Bowl) are all playing in their home state. Meanwhile, there are certain situations where a team is very familiar with the city and stadium they are playing in and that can serve as an advantage.
Examples this year include Fresno State playing in Las Vegas, BYU playing in Boise and Virginia playing in Charlotte.
5. Favor Teams with Balanced Offenses
Think about it. If a coaching staff is given four weeks to prepare for an opponent that relies heavily on the run, how much easier is it going to be to shut down that offense. Bottom line: if you give a decent coach with decent players on defense an extended period of time to prepare, that offense is much more likely to get shut down if it’s one-dimensional.
So before you bet a bowl team this season, make sure that team is balanced on offense and doesn’t rely too heavily on one or two skill players.