BY HARRY BONDI
I have been handicapping the college football bowl games for more than 30 years. Believe me when I tell you that things have changed dramatically during the last three decades.
Handicapping college bowl games is unlike anything else in sports betting. Think about it. There is no other sport that takes a one-month break between the regular season and the postseason. It’s a situation that changes the dynamic of the game – and how you handicap – because a lot more needs to be considered when both teams are given multiple weeks to prepare for an opponent rather than just six or seven days.
One thing that hasn’t changed is the way my staff and I prepare for these games. Over the next four weeks, there will be 41 bowl games involving 80 teams. It all starts this Saturday, Dec. 16 and culminates with the National Championship Game on Monday, Jan. 8.
We have been breaking down the matchups ever since they were released a few weeks ago and have already been speaking with our contacts and media friends from every bowl team on a daily basis. So far, we have spotted 11 games where my power ratings have the pointspread OFF by 7 points or more!
As we inch closer to releasing our first bowl selection this Saturday, Dec. 16 and narrow down the choices for our Annual College Bowl “Lock of the Year” selection, which has been an EASY WINNER seven out of the last eight years, here are five things every handicapper should take into consideration during the bowl season.
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Now, let’s go bowling . . .
1. Coaching
This is one of the most crucial aspects to consider when handicapping bowl games. The extended time off magnifies how well a team prepares for the game. Some coaches are very good with extra preparation time. Others not so good.
There are also many scenarios where head coaches have bolted for another job, leaving behind an interim coach or a new head coach to take over for the bowl game. A few examples this year include Oregon’s Willie Taggert leaving the Ducks after just one season to become the head coach at Florida State, while Dan Mullen resigned at Mississippi State to take the Florida job and, as a result, Penn State lost its offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead as he became the Bulldogs’ new head coach.
You need to look at recent history to see if the coaching matchup in a certain bowl game can be exploited. And try to stay away from head coaches who are taking a team to a bowl game for the first time. There are a ton of outside factors – aside from actual Xs and Os – that make bringing a team to a bowl game much more demanding.
Some coaches are better than others at this balancing act. Marshall’s Doc Holliday is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in bowl games while Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS, including 5-1 as an underdog. Ohio State’s Urban Meyer is also a great coach to be “on” this time a year since he is not only 10-3 ATS in bowl games, but when given extra time to prepare in his career his teams are an amazing 48-4 straight up and 36-13 ATS, despite last year’s crushing 31-0 playoff loss to eventual champion Clemson.
Speaking of Clemson, Dabo Swinney has become one of the best “big game” coaches in the game. Over the last five years, the TIgers have been an underdog in five bowl games and two national title games and have gone 7-0 ATS and 6-1 straight up in those games.
On the other end of the spectrum, San Diego State’s Rocky Long is 4-7 both SU and ATS in bowls and 0-3 ATS as a dog. Kansas State’s Bill Snyder is 5-13 ATS, Middle Tennessee State’s Rick Stockstill is 1-5 ATS and SU and Washington State’s Mike Leach is just 3-8 ATS as a bowl favorite. And when someone at the water cooler starts telling you that Nick Saban is a genius and “he’s a LOCK with a month to prepare,” you can remind him that Saban is an underwhelming 9-9 ATS in his bowl career.
2. Underdogs and Armed Forces
Underdogs are typically worth an extra look in bowl games. When favorites hit 60% in 2015-16 it was an aberration. Last year, dogs went 26-14 (65%) ATS and in the 10 years between 2004 and 2014, underdogs hit 57%. Also, over the last 10 years double-digit underdogs in pre-New Year’s Day have gone 49-30-2 (62%).
Historically, military academies have also been a great bet in bowl games. Air Force, Army and Navy are a combined 31-14 (69%) ATS in bowl games over the years, including a whopping 20-4 ATS when facing an opponent with a record that’s .600 or better.
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3. Motivation
Having a month off to prepare for a game can also be a bad thing because certain teams won’t be excited about going to a faraway place where it’s colder than at home to play what they may deem as a meaningless game.
You have to keep these things in mind and that’s why it’s so important to follow these teams closely to find out where the players’ and coaching staffs’ mindset is.
Meanwhile, there are some teams out there that are simply excited to play in any bowl game, no matter where or when it is being played. Those are the types of teams that we’ll give extra consideration to being “on” because we know we’ll get their best effort.
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4. The Venue
Sometimes teams will have an edge by playing at a stadium that is more familiar to them than their opponent, or by playing closer to home so they will attract more fans.
A couple of examples would be Florida Atlantic, Navy and Miami-Florida, which are playing bowl games in their home stadium.
Fresno State (Hawaii Bowl), Colorado State (New Mexico Bowl) and Wyoming (Idaho Potato Bowl) are both playing at sites they played at earlier this year during regular season play, while Northern Illinois is playing Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit, the stadium where the Huskies played six-straight MAC Championship Games from 2010 to 2015.
In addition to FAU, Navy and The U, there are a slew of other teams playing in their home state, including SMU (Frisco Bowl), Florida International (Gasparilla Bowl), Texas (Texas Bowl), TCU (Alamo Bowl), Wake Forest (Belk Bowl) and Memphis (LIberty Bowl).
5. Balanced Offenses Rule
Think about it. If a coaching staff is given four weeks to prepare for an opponent that relies heavily on the run, how much easier is it going to be to shut down that offense. Bottom line: if you give a decent coach with decent players on defense an extended period of time to prepare, that offense is much more likely to get shut down if it’s one-dimensional.
So before you bet a bowl team this season, make sure that team is balanced on offense and doesn’t rely too heavily on one or two skill players.