7 Secrets to Beating March Madness
BY HARRY BONDI
There’s a reason why your bookie is smiling right now.
It’s March Madness. And that means all of a sudden every bettor out there thinks he knows more than Joe Lunardi and Jay Bilas combined. He thinks by reading a few game capsules on ESPN.com he can wade in and start betting college hoops, even though he wasn’t even really paying attention until after the Super Bowl
And more than likely, these are the guys who will get buried.
The truth is, it’s impossible to win big betting against the Las Vegas line in March, if you haven’t been paying attention since November. But year after year, the NCCA Men’s Basketball Tournament attracts more “square bettors” and non-sports fan bettors than any other betting event other than the Super Bowl. In fact, March Madness has become the biggest betting event of the year with more money collectively wagered on the NCAA tournament than the NFL Playoffs, College Bowls and NBA Playoffs.
To make sure that the Madness doesn’t turn into a nightmare for you this season, follow these tried and true rules and enjoy a profitable run to the National Championship. My Basketball “Steam Team” members have won 72% of their March Madness selections the last seven years and entering this week we are on a 19-7 (73%) run!
Pick up the phone and call me today at 1.877.332.0077 and join our March Madness Special for JUST $300.
1. Pick your spots
There are 67 games played during the three weeks of the NCAA tournament. However, 36 of those games are played in the first four days! If you bet too many games in those first two days and do not do well you will spend the rest of the tournament trying to bail out.
Limit yourself to 3-5 bets per day at the very most and put yourself in position to “survive and advance.” As the tournament winds down to the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four, bet the games that you really like and don’t feel like you have to bet a game just because it’s on TV. That’s a sure way to bury yourself before the first weekend of the tournament.
2. Power and momentum matters
Very rarely do teams come out of nowhere to win the NCAA tournament. Power conferences and top programs dominate. Occasionally a “Cinderella” team makes it to the Elite 8, but it is rare. Three years ago there was an exception when UConn won it all as an eight seed over seventh-seeded Kentucky.
But if you take out the 2014 tourney, only one team worse than a No. 6 seed had made it to the Championship Game in last 30 years and over the last 28 years the winner of the Big Dance has always been a No. 4 seed or better 27 times. Also, since the field expanded to 64 teams, 80 of the 128 Final Four teams have been a 1 or 2 seed.
Last year, of course, we had two No. 1 seeds (Villanova and North Carolina) in the championship game. In 2015, three of the Final Four teams were No. 1 seeds and in the championship game Duke beat Wisconsin in a battle of top seeds. Four years ago, all No. 1 and 2 seeds made the Final Four.
Teams from the smaller conferences may keep it close or pull an upset in the early rounds, but the cream rises to the top the further you get into the tournament. Remember that when you are gambling and especially when you are filling out your NCAA tournament brackets.
Need more proof? Twelve out of the last 18 teams that won the national championship also won their conference tournament title that same year.
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3. Coaches and location, location, location!
Look for experienced coaches to go deep in the tournament. In the last 13 years, only two head coaches (Butler’s Brad Stevens in 2012 and UConn’s Kevin Ollie in 2014) have brought their team to the Final Four, without having made at least four previous NCAA appearances as a head coach.
In fact, 115 of the last 140 teams to make the Elite 8 over the last 16 years had a head coach who has taken a team to the Big Dance at least four times. And 21 of the last 22 NCAA Champions have had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience. The lesson? Look to play on experienced coaches over tournament rookie head coaches.
Finally, the tournament is planned years in advance and often teams end up playing close to home. Be aware that teams playing in their home state are 54-9 straight up and 38-24 (61%) against the spread since 2005.
4. Money management
It’s almost become a cliché but it’s the oldest advice in sports betting because it’s true and extremely important. Pick an amount of money that makes it interesting, but that you can afford. It might be $100, $1,000 or $10,000.
That is your regular bet. If you are a member of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team” a 3-star play is your regular bet. Double that unit at 5 stars and triple it for our 10 star highest rated games. Don’t bet more than 3 times your regular bet — ever.
Everybody wishes they would have bet more when they win, but when your selections go bad, you’ll be happy that you didn’t go overboard with your bet.
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5. Shop for the best lines
It is not unusual for tournament games to move 2 or 3 points over the course of the day. Typically, the line move will be toward the favorite. Teams like Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolinaare so popular and heavily bet that the line will often move their way as well.
If you like the favorite or heavily followed team it is best to bet early. If you like the dog or want to go against the well-known teams, then wait until game time, if possible. Getting the best line will mean the difference of at least three or four wins over the course of the tournament.
If you only have one outlet for your action you are playing into your bookie’s hands. Every bettor MUST have two or three outlets to get the best lines possible.
If you need an offshore sportsbook go to the Online Sportsbook Rankings section of our web site.
Many of these offshore books are offering huge deposit bonuses for March Madness.
Finally, monitor the line movements throughout the day to see if you can middle a game. Like the first time you got laid or when your favorite team won a World Championship, you will never forget how great it feels to middle a game!
6. Do your homework and/or get with a good handicapper that does his homework!
Know the teams you are betting on AND against. Know the style of play both teams prefer. Are they an up-tempo team that is going to be looking to push the ball all game? Or are they a plodding team that will look to drain the shot clock? If you have contrasting styles of play and you believe that one t
eam will be able to force their will on the other, it’s time to build that bankroll!
Of course, the best way to insure that you win BIG MONEY during March Madness is to join forces with someone like Harry Bondi, a 30-year veteran of the sports handicapping business.
Call me at 1-877-332-0077 right now to find out how you can start winning in basketball TODAY a for just $300. This includes the Big Dance, CIT, CBI, NIT and any NBA selections we have through the NCAA Championship Game on April 3.
7. Don’t bet emotionally
Do you have a favorite team? Are you an alum of one of the teams in the Big Dance? If so, bet those games small. Don’t fall in love with a team during the tournament. Don’t give too much value to the last game a team played. Remember, no team is as good or as bad as it looked in that game.
Do you really like or dislike a particular coach? Be careful when you bet on or against him. Did you spend the afternoon at your favorite sports bar throwing them back instead of going back to work and now you want to send it in on a night game you love? Be really careful. In fact, go to bed. You’ll save yourself a pile of cash.