BY HARRY BONDI
The Madness returns! One year after COVID-19 caused the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament the brackets are back, and the only ones smiling wider right than than thirsty college hoop fans are the bookies.
That’s right, nobody loves this time of year more than the sportsbooks. Because this is the week when sports bettors who haven’t watched much college hoop and probably can’t even tell you what state Gonzaga is in, even though they are picking the Zags to win it all, start betting aggressively. They get caught up in the action and by the end of the weekend not only are their brackets busted, but so is their bankroll.
Even if you have been following things closely all season, the only way to make sure the Madness doesn’t turn into a nightmare for you this season, is to follow my suggestions below. It’s why why Basketball “Steam Team” members have won 67% of their March Madness picks over the last nine years!
And it’s why in the 2019 tournament, I correctly predicted that Virginia would beat Texas Tech in the finals, BEFORE THE TOURNAMENT BEGAN, helping my clients win hundreds of thousands of dollars in their pools and with their bookies.
If you want turn the Madness into Money, call me today at 1.877.332.0077 and I will give you every basketball pick — both NBA and college — we release from today through the Final Four on April 5 for JUST $300!
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1. Pick Your Spots
It’s easy to get swooped up into all of the excitement. The first two days of the NCAA Big Dance, when 32 of the tournament’s 63 games will be played, is wall-to-wall action, but if you’re not cautious, you could get blown out on the very first afternoon.
You need to try and limit yourself to 3-5 bets per day. If you’re going to bet more than that, just for fun, back down tour unit size so the losses can’t pile up and absolutely bury you. Use the “survive and advance” strategy that the actual teams are employing as they try to make it to the Final Four. As the tournament winds down to the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four, don’t feel like you have to bet every game.
2. Power programs prevail
As much as the talking heads on TV like to talk about all of the upsets and tell you “anything can happen” during March Madness, the bottom line is that power conferences and top programs dominate. Yes, there is the occasional long shot that makes it to the Elite 8, or even the Final Four, but that is the exception, not the rule.
If you take out UConn’s incredible run to winning the title as a No. 8 seed back in 2014, only one team worse than a No. 6 seed has made it to the Championship Game in last 33 years. In 30 of the last 31 years, the eventual winner of the Big Dance has been a No. 4 seed or better. Also, since the field expanded to 64 teams, 86 of the 140 Final Four teams (61%) have been a 1 or 2 seed.
In both 2016 and 2017, two No. 1 seeds played in the championship game. In 2015, three of the Final Four teams were No. 1 seeds and in the championship game Duke beat Wisconsin in a battle of top seeds. In 2013, all No. 1 and 2 seeds made the Final Four.
Teams from the smaller conferences may keep it close or pull an upset in the early rounds, but the cream rises to the top the further you get into the tournament. Remember that when you are gambling and especially when you are filling out your NCAA tournament brackets.
3. Coaching matters
Look for experienced coaches to go deep in the tournament. In the last 15 years, only three head coaches (Texas Tech’s Chris Beard in 2019, Butler’s Brad Stevens in 2012, UConn’s Kevin Ollie in 2014, and Loyola’s Porter Moser last year) have brought their team to the Final Four, without having made at least four previous NCAA appearances as a head coach.
What’s more, 136 of the last 164 teams to make the Elite 8 had a head coach who has taken a team to the Big Dance at least four times. And 24 of the last 25 NCAA Champions had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience. The lesson? Look to play on experienced coaches over tournament rookie head coaches.
4. Manage your bankroll
It’s almost become a cliché but it’s the oldest advice in sports betting because it’s true and extremely important. Pick an amount of money that makes it interesting, but that you can afford. It might be $100, $1,000 or $10,000.
That is your regular bet. If you are a member of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team” a 3-star play is your regular bet. Double that unit at 5 stars and triple it for our 10 star highest rated games. Don’t bet more than 3 times your regular bet — ever.
Everybody wishes they would have bet more when they win, but when your selections go bad, you’ll be happy that you didn’t go overboard with your bet.
5. Shop for the best lines
If you only have one bookie, you are doing yourself a disservice as a sports bettor. It is to your advantage to have more than one out. I recommend at least three sources.
It is not unusual for tournament games to move 2 or 3 points over the course of the day. Typically, the line move will be toward the favorite. Teams like Gonzaga, Michigan and North Carolina are so popular and heavily bet that the line will often move their way as well.
If you only have one outlet for your action you are playing into your bookie’s hands. Every bettor MUST have two or three outlets to get the best lines possible.
If you need an offshore sportsbook go to the Online Sportsbook Rankings section of our web site. Many of these offshore books are offering huge deposit bonuses for March Madness.
6. Get the help you need to succeed
Know the teams you are betting on AND against. Know the style of play both teams prefer. Are they an up-tempo team that is going to be looking to push the ball all game? Or are they a plodding team that will look to drain the shot clock? If you have contrasting styles of play and you believe that one team will be able to force their will on the other, it’s time to build that bankroll
Of course, the best way to insure that you win BIG MONEY during March Madness is to join forces with someone like Harry Bondi, a 32-year veteran of the sports handicapping business.
Call me at 1-877-332-0077 right now to find out how you can start winning in basketball TODAY a for just $300. This includes the Big Dance, CIT, CBI, NIT and any NBA selections we have through the NCAA Championship Game on April 8.
7. Don’t bet with emotion
Do you have a favorite team? Are you an alum of one of the teams in the Big Dance? If so, bet those games small. Don’t fall in love with a team during the tournament. Don’t give too much value to the last game a team played. Remember, no team is as good or as bad as it looked in that game.
Do you really like or dislike a particular coach? Be careful when you bet on or against him. Did you spend the afternoon at your favorite sports bar throwing them back instead of going back to work and now you want to send it in on a night game you love? Be really careful. In fact, go to bed. You’ll save yourself a pile of cash.