BY HARRY BONDI
Handicapping college bowl games is unlike anything else in sports betting. Think about it. There is no other sport that takes a one-month break between the regular season and the postseason.
It’s a situation that changes the dynamic of the game – and how you handicap – because a lot more needs to be considered when both teams are given multiple weeks to prepare for an opponent rather than just six or seven days.
I have been handicapping the college bowl games for more than 30 years. Believe me when I tell you that things have changed dramatically during the last three decades.
But one thing that hasn’t changed is the way my staff and I prepare for these games. There will be 40 bowl games involving 80 teams, plus the National Championship Game, played between this Saturday, Dec. 17 and Monday, Jan. 9.
We have been breaking down the matchups ever since they were released a few weeks ago and have already been speaking with our contacts and media friends from every bowl team on a daily basis. So far, I have spotted eight games where my power ratings have the pointspread OFF by 7 points or more!
As we inch closer to releasing our first bowl selection on Saturday and narrow down the choices for our Annual College Bowl “Lock of the Year” selection, which has been an EASY WINNER six out of the last seven years, here are five things every handicapper should take into consideration during the bowl season.
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1. Coaching
This is one of the most crucial aspects to consider when handicapping bowl games. The extended time off magnifies how well a team prepares for the game. Some coaches are very good with extra preparation time. Others not so good.
You need to look at recent history to see if the coaching matchup in a certain bowl game can be
exploited. And try to stay away from head coaches who are taking a team to a bowl game for the first time. There are a ton of outside factors – aside from actual Xs and Os – that make bringing a team to a bowl game much more demanding.
Some coaches are better than others at this balancing act. For instance, despite last year’s blowout loss in the Rose Bowl, Kirk Ferentz is 8-4 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog in bowl games. Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 8-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS, including 5-1 as an underdog and, very quietly, UL-Lafayette’s Mark Hudspeth is 4-0 both SU and ATS in the bowl, including three wins as an underdog.
On the other end of the spectrum, San Diego State’s Rocky Long is 3-7 both SU and ATS in bowls and 0-3 ATS as a dog. Kansas State’s Bill Snyder (above) is 5-12 ATS, including last year when we went against the Wildcats and used Arkansas (-13) in a 45-23 rout. New Mexico’s Bob Davie is 0-for-4 in bowl games with just one pointspread cover.
And when someone at the water cooler starts telling you that Nick Saban is a genius and “he’s a LOCK with a month to prepare,” you can remind him that Saban is an average 9-8 ATS in his bowl career.
Finally, keep any eye in which teams will have interim coaches strolling the sidelines and read local newspapers to find out if the players are energized by the coach, or treating him like the lame duck that he is.
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2. Underdogs, Armed Forces & Straight-Up Winners
Underdogs are typically worth an extra look in bowl games. When favorites hit 60% last 
year it was an aberration, since in the previous 10 years dogs hit 57%, and in the previous seven years double-digit underdogs in pre-New Year’s Day went 42-27-2 (61%).
Historically, military academies have also been a great bet in bowl games. Air Force, Army and Navy are a combined 29-13 (69%) ATS in bowl games over the years, including a whopping 20-4 ATS when facing an opponent with a record that’s .600 or better.
But when in doubt, just try and pick the winner of the game. Since 1980, 86% (737-117) of straight-up winners in the bowl games have also covered the spread.
3. Motivation
Having a month off to prepare for a game can also be a bad thing because certain teams won’t be excited about going to a faraway place where it’s colder than at home to play what they may deem as a meaningless game.
You have to keep these things in mind and that’s why it’s so important to follow these teams closely to find out where the players’ and coaching staff’s mindset it.
Meanwhile, there are some teams out there that are simply excited to play in any bowl game, no matter where or when it is being played. Those are the types of teams that we’ll give extra consideration to being “on” because we know we’ll get their best effort.
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4. The Venue
Sometimes teams will have an edge by playing at a stadium that is more familiar to them than their opponent.
A couple of examples would be New Mexico, which is playing at home against Texas San Antonio in the aptly named New Mexico Bowl and Hawaii, which plays Middle Tennessee State at home in the Hawaii Bowl.
Also, San Diego State plays in Las Vegas every other year for a conference game so they will be much more prepared for the trip to Sin City for this year’s Las Vegas Bowl than their opponent, Houston.
Also, there are a slew of teams playing in their home state, including Central Florida (Cure Bowl), UL-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl), Idaho (Idaho Potato Bowl), Texas A&M (Texas Bowl), Troy (Dollar General Bowl), North Texas (Heart of Dallas Bowl) Tennessee (Music City Bowl) and Miami (Russell Athletic Bowl).
5. Balanced Offenses Rule
Think about it. If a coaching staff is given four weeks to prepare for an opponent that relies heavily on the run, how much easier is it going to be to shut down that offense. Bottom line: if you give a decent coach with decent players on defense an extended period of time to prepare, that offense is much more likely to get shut down if it’s one-dimensional. So before you bet a bowl team this season, make sure that team is balanced on offense and doesn’t rely too heavily on one or two skill players.