Tiger Woods will not win this week’s PGA Championship.
Yes, it would be great for the game of golf to see Tiger do it again this week at Bethpage Black and keep the Grand Slam dream alive. And bettors out there are certainly booking on Tiger being in the hunt, as he enters the week at as low as 8-to-1 and one of the outright favorites. But the course is not a great set up for him and, above all, the weather is not expected to get out of the mid-60s, which is a bad break for anyone teeing it up this week with a cranky back.
So, now that we’ve dismissed Tiger’s chances, let’s move on to who we think there is value on this week.
First, as mentioned, the weather has been dreary and wet all week, which is going to make an already long and laborious course, even longer. With that said, big hitters off the tee are going to have a distinct advantage. Secondly, seven of the last nine winners of the PGA Championship, and three of the last four, were first-time major winners. We’re going to ride that trend.
Finally, the crowds in New York are typically very rowdy (and drunk). Thin-skinned golfers need not apply for the chance to win this year’s PGA Championship. It’s going to be just as crucial to keep it together in between the ears this week as it will be keeping the ball in the fairway.
With all of that in mind, here are our three players to watch (and bet) this week:
Rickie Fowler
Fowler, who has two-career top five finishes in the PGA Championship, is at the very top of the list for “Best Player to Have Never Won a Major” and this week we’re betting he finally breaks through. Rickie is a showman and loves to play in front of big crowds, as seen by his win in Phoenix back in early February. He’s also a big bomber and comes into the week in great form with Top 10 finishes in his last two starts, including a T-9 at the Masters. When the PGA playoffs were played on this course in 2016, Rickie took fourth place, so at 16-to-1 we’re jumping in with both feet.
Bet Rickie Fowler to win PGA Championship at 16-to-1
Bet Rickie Fowler (-110) over Tiger Woods
Xander Schauffele
You may remember in our Masters Preview we picked Xander as a player to watch and also used him in match-ups and he did not disappoint, surging to a second place finish. We go back to the well again this week with the California Kid, who in just his third PGA Tour season has already finished fifth and sixth in the U.S. Open, second at the Open Championship and second at the Masters. Impressive stuff. With two wins under his belt this year, he’s primed to break through and capture his first major.
Bet Xander Schauffele to win the PGA Championship at 25-to-1
Bet Xander Schauffele (-135) over Patrick Cantlay
Hideki Matsuyama
The only thing that’s held back Matsuyama in big events is his inconsistent putting, but this may be the one major that putting isn’t as vital as some other stats. He can bomb it with the best of them and he ranks third on TOUR this year in strokes gained from tee to green. He also has two top 5 finishes in this event in the last five years. The price is right.
Bet Hideki Matsuyama to win PGA Championship at 37-to-1
Bet Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Bryson DeChambeau