While our expertise here at Harry Bondi Sports is football, basketball and baseball, we aren’t afraid to wade in and bet other sports, especially when we see value.
That is certainly the case on Saturday night when Floyd Mayweather steps into the ring to take on Conor McGregor in a fight that has been marketed and promoted brilliantly by everyone involved.
Watch the press conferences. Take in every hour of Showtime’s All Access. Listen to what the fighters and promoters have to say. Track the betting line. Do all of those things and you’ll most certainly be convinced that McGregor has a “punchers chance” to win on Saturday night. And that’s exactly what they want you to think. They want to draw you in and entice you to buy that pay-per-view, and we’re guessing a lot of you already have.
The reality, however, is that this fight is a mismatch.
Think about it. Last year at this time, when this fight was simply a dream, some bookmakers, both offshore and in Las Vegas, posted Mayweather as high as a 25-to-1 favorite. When things were made official in June, that number dropped to around 8-to-1 at most books, mostly because the oddsmakers expected a windfall of action on the underdog.
They were right. Bets on McGregor have been pouring in over the last seven weeks, driving the price down to as little as 4-to-1 in some spots.
The average line on Mayweather’s fights over the last 17 years has been -740. That was, of course, when he was facing actual professional boxers. Guys who made a living out of being a boxer. Now, he’s as little as a -400 favorite against a guy who has never boxed professionally?
We understand that McGregor is a beast. He’s the best UFC fighter in the world and he’s got the bankroll to prove it. He’s younger and bigger than Mayweather and it’s true that all it takes is one punch and the fight is over. But boxing is a different animal. He won’t be barefoot on Saturday night. He can’t kick, or use his knees and elbows as weapons. And, by the way, he’ll be trying to land punches on a guy who is the undisputed best defensive boxer in the history of the sport. Hall of Fame-caliber boxers like Manny Pacquiao, Canelo Alvarez and Shane Mosely could barely touch him. How can we expect McGregor to have the skill and patience to hit him?
So, as you can tell, we think the -400 on Mayweather provides a lot of value.. Our humble prediction? A Mayweather TKO in the 9th round.
But even if you aren’t convinced enough to lay that kind of lumber and still want action on the fight, you can still do so, thanks to our friends at BetOnline, who have a number of alternative and proposition bets on the board just waiting to be taken advantage of:
Over 6.5 rounds -150
Despite the fact that we think Mayweather will win this fight, we don’t think he’ll be able to end it early. That’s just not his style. Twelve of his last 15 fights have gone the distance, including the last seven. There will be a feeling out process early on, and that will last a few rounds. McGregor is tough enough to hang on for at least five or six rounds.
Mayweather by TKO/KO/DQ -165
Using the same logic as above, you can go ahead and lay a much cheaper price than -400 on Mayweather if you think he’ll win any other way than by a decision. At -165, the price is right.
Giancarlo Stanton more home runs than McGregor knockouts -105
We consider this one a free roll. In 49 professional fights, Mayweather has been knocked out once. And even that KO was questionable as his glove barely touched the ground. So, since we think the chances of McGregor knocking “Money” to the canvas are slim, we’ll take a shot on the Major League leader in home runs launching a long ball at home against the Padres. Stanton has hit at least one home run in 13 of his last 20 games and the San Diego pitching staff has allowed the eighth-most HRs in the league this year.