Golf is back and we are fortunate to have one of the best golf handicappers in the world on our staff, Greg Turner. He proved it again over Memorial Day Weekend when he went 3-0 in the Tiger & Peyton over Phil and Tom Brady match. We won with Tiger & Phil winning the match, the first 9 holes and the prop bet that there would be an eagle at +175.
A $100 bettor made $375. Did you bet our picks and cash in?
Then we know you’ll be with us for our picks in this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge and the next 3 weeks of picks for just $175! That’s just what we won on one pick two weeks ago and this week we have three picks to win and five matchup bets.
We give you three of our picks for free below but to get the entire package of seven picks for this week’s event, call 1-877-332-0077 BEFORE 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday!
PGA TOUR BETTING PREVIEW
Charles Schwab Challenge – June 11-14
Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, Texas
When handicapping golf, two of the most important stats to look at are current form (how a player has fared in recent weeks) and course form (a player’s history on the course).
Since, like most every other sport, professional golf has been dormant since mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there really is no current form to factor in this week as the PGA TOUR heads to Texas to get back into action. In fact, we pretty much ignored how these guys were playing at the start of the season when breaking down this week’s event.
However, we expect course form to play a major role in making money betting golf this weekend. First off, nobody has won this event in his first time playing the course since Sergio Garcia took home the ugly jacket in his debut way back in 2001. In looking at the last 10 winners, eight of them played the tournament the year before, and of those eight all of them made the cut the year prior and five of them finished T-14 or better.
When you look at the past winners it’s easy to see that this is not a course where you need to be a bomber off the tee. Previous winners like Zach Johnson, who holds the course record and prevailed here in 2010 and 2010, David Toms, Kevin Na and Chris Kirk are notorious for their short games, not their driver. Keep in mind seven of the last 10 winners here placed 13th or better in greens in regulation and only three finished in the top 20 of distance off the tee.
The fairways are tree lined and tight with a ton of doglegs and the Bentgrass greens are some of the smallest on tour. Winning here is all about not hitting it 350 yards off the tee, but positioning yourself for a manageable approach shot into the tiny greens. And since it’s going to be sweltering hot and the area hasn’t had any significant rain since the end of May, the fairways and greens will be rolling like glass.
As for this week’s field, we are getting a real treat as 16 of the top 20 players in the world will be teeing it up.
If you’re unfamiliar with betting on golf, keep in mind that there is much more value in betting match-up bets than picking players to win since there is just so much variance week in and week out on TOUR. Having said that, we always recommend playing match-up wagers for full unit and the “to-win” picks for a half unit.
Now, let’s head to Fort Worth . . .
WEBB SIMPSON TO WIN (25-to-1)
Simpson isn’t someone who is going to bring in big TV ratings and storm around the course pumping his fist like Tiger Woods, but he’s had a stellar career with six wins and a major championship (2012 U.S. Open). He excels on shorter courses and four of his six career wins came on courses with Bentgrass greens. Although he missed the cut here last year, in the previous two years he was fifth and third.
MATCH-UP BETS
Tony Finau (-135) over Marc Leishman
Not only does Finau seem to thrive when he’s playing in an event with a star-studded field, but, like Simpson, he loves the Bentgrass greens. He was the leader after Round 1 here last year when he ultimately finished second, and he’s made the cut in four of five starts on this course. Leishman hasn’t played this tournament the last two years and in his previous seven starts on the course he only cracked the top 20 once (13th in 2006).
Russell Knox (-135) over Bubba Watson
Bubba loves the long ball and as mentioned above that gives him zero advantage here. There’s a reason he has seldom played this course. He hates it. Bubba hasn’t traveled here since 2008 when he placed 72nd and his only other start in this event came two years previous when he missed the cut. Knox, meanwhile, has played the event in four of the last six years. He not only made the cut in all four starts, but finished in the top 24 all four times, including an eighth-place last year.
The last few months have been a difficult, trying time, and our thoughts and best wishes have remained with you and your families. Finally, things are starting to open up and the NBA is the first major sport to release its schedule, which will start on July 31st.
Thank you for your continued loyalty and support. It truly means the world to us. We’ve been busy handicapping the sports that are in action as well as preparing for the upcoming basketball and football seasons. We look forward to having you back on the “Steam Team,” hopefully starting today for this week’s PGA six-pack of winners. Stay safe!