We have always preached that a lot more goes into handicapping football games than simply Xs and Os. For sure, statistical match-ups and pitting a team’s strengths and weaknesses against each its opponent is important and a great starting point, but there are also many other factors to consider, one of which being motivation.
Let’s face it. A team’s mental approach to each game is different. So, when you place a bet on a big favorite, you must be 100% sure that the players and — sometimes more importantly — the coaching staff is properly focused on the task at hand on that particular week.
A prime example of this came this past Sunday when we released New Orleans (-7) over the LA Rams as our NFL Top Play. One of our most reliable and longest tenured scouts based in the Baton Rouge area told us way back in August that Saints head coach Sean Payton had his team’s game against the Rams circled in red. The reason was that he didn’t take kindly to the way Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams handled himself in the aftermath of Bountygate back in 2012, which cost Payton a year suspension and a year salary. In fact, Payton thought Williams stabbed him in the back.
For some reason, this narrative got very little attention last week in the days leading up to the game. So much so that we had our scout reconfirm that Payton would still be out for revenge. When he told us that beating the Rams badly was a focus point inside the Saints locker room all of last week, we didn’t hesitate in releasing New Orleans as our top play, and as expected, they rolled to a 49-21 victory, which included a 50-yard wide receiver option pass trick play in the fourth quarter while sitting on a three-TD lead.
It was the perfect case in which we played a big favorite knowing full well that a back-door cover or lack of focus in the fourth quarter was unlikely and it paid off for all members of the “Steam Team.”
This Sunday we release our 10-Star NFL “Lock of the Year” and we have a team in a similar situation as the Saints last week. This game promises to be as easy as last year’s NFL 10-Star “Lock” when Pittsburgh (-7) destroyed Indy, 45-10. Find out how you can get the NFL “Lock of the Year” for FREE by calling Harry at 1-877-332-0077.
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The only thing we know for sure entering the final week of the college football regular season is that Alabama is the best team in the country and will be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, even if they lose to Florida as a 24-point favorite in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game.
The Crimson Tide defense, which has scored nine TDs this season, is now considered one of the best 
in college football history and if you look at the numbers, especially over the last month or so, it’s not difficult to make that argument. In its last four games, Bama has not allowed 18 points, but zero TDs. Opponents have only driven inside the red zone on two occasion and there have been no plays against Alabama inside the 10 yard line.
Speaking of defense, it was the Ohio State stop unit that was most responsible for the Buckeyes’ dramatic 30-27 win in overtime over Michigan. OSU held Michigan to a season-low 91 rushing yards and that was a key factor since the Wolverines were 10-0 this year when running for over 100 yards. OSU, which ranks second in the country behind Alabama with seven defensive scores, forced three turnovers on Saturday, the most Michigan has had this season. Of the 17 points Ohio State scored in regulation, 14 came off Wolverine turnovers. That helped the Buckeyes rally from a 17-7 fourth quarter deficit, marking their largest comeback against Michigan since 1987.
One sportsbook director in Las Vegas told us that the OSU-Michigan game had a higher handle than every single NFL game on Sunday, except for the KC-Denver Sunday night game, which is even more amazing when you consider it was a 9 a.m. kickoff in Vegas.
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“Steam Team” members were on the winning side of that epic Sunday Night game, as we had the Chiefs (+3.5) in a 30-27 OT win. As we mentioned in a previous Handicapper’s Notebook, the Chiefs have one of the better records in football dating back to last season, as they are now 17-3 in their last 20 regular season games. Despite a rather pedestrian offense that has scored just 21 TDs in 11 games, KC have now won three games this season when trailing by eight or more points in the fourth quarter. But that’s nothing compared to the Detroit Lions, who have been behind in the fourth quarter in all 11 games this season, but have managed a 7-4 record. Since 2008, there have only been seven other teams that have trailed in the final quarter of all of their first 11 games of the season, and their combined record in those games was 4-73.
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More than 80 percent of the names Harry Bondi has put on his annual list of “College Coaches on the Hot Seat” have indeed been fired over the last eight years, the latest of which being Charlie Strong, 
who received his pink slip from Texas last week. Strong went 16-21 with the Longhorns and became the first coach in school history to suffer three-straight losing seasons.
Tom Herman left Houston to take over at Texas after going 22-4 in two seasons with the Cougars. Following the Cougars’ dismantling of Louisville two weeks ago, Herman improved to 6-0 against ranked opponents. Even more impressive is the fact that during his tenure at Houston and as an offensive coordinator at Ohio State, Herman coached teams are 11-0 ATS and straight up as an underdog. It is worth mentioning, however, that despite all of these accolades and the huge contract Herman just received at Texas, his Houston team underperformed overall this year.
The Cougars upset loss to Memphis on Saturday means they went under their projected 9.5 wins for the year, finishing 9-3. On that same note, condolences to those out there that had an over 9.5 wins ticket on Louisville in their pockets this season. The Cardinals also finished the regular season 9-3, losing their last two games to Houston, as a 17-point favorite and a -1050 on the money line, and Kentucky, as a 29-point favorite and -5000 on the moneyline.
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The Oakland Raiders have been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. At 9-2, they are tied for the second-best record in the league, the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West and very much in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But before you plunk some money down on them winning the Super Bowl at the current 12-to-1 odds, which is down from the 50-to-1 opening line, consider this: The Raiders rank 29th in the league in defense and over the last 15 years only one team (2011 New England Patriots) have made it to the conference finals with a bottom-four defense.
Also, now that the calendar has turned to December, keep in mind that Raiders QB Derek Carr — a legit MVP candidate right now — has played just one game in his NFL career when the temperature was under 40 degrees. That may be an issue in key games at KC and at Denver later this year, and, of course, in the playoffs, especially when you consider the Raiders have rushed for a TOTAL of just 85 yards the last two weeks in wins over Houston and Carolina.