Our 10-Star College Football “Lock of the Year” winner on Arkansas (+4) over Florida, 31-10, was a game Harry Bondi and his staff zeroed in on nearly six weeks ago.
Looking at the two teams’ schedules, it was clear that the Gators, who had puffed up stats on both sides of the ball due to a cupcake schedule, would be overrated when they traveled to Arkansas, which would be the more tested and more rested team as it came off a much-needed bye week after playing SEC foes Mississippi, Texas A&M, Alabama and Auburn, as well as a non-conference game against TCU.
The last time we saw the Hogs they were getting drilled by Auburn, 56-3, as a 10-point dog. We were ecstatic by that result back on Oct. 22 not only because we released Auburn to our “Steam Team” members that day, but also because we knew it would give us tremendous value when Arkansas hosted Florida two weeks later.
After releasing the “Lock of the Year,” many of our clients called to ask how we could have a team that just lost its last game by 53 points and was facing a Gators’ defense that was ranked No. 2 in the country. We simply explained that our sources in Arkansas assured us that the Hogs were rested and laser-focused for the Gators after that embarrassing loss and that we knew Florida was overrated.
Because their game against LSU got cancelled earlier this year due to Hurricane Matthew, the only game the Gators had played against a team in our Top 40 this season before Saturday was against Tennessee, which beat Florida, 38-28, while rolling up 500 yards of offense. The team’s other defensive stats came against the likes of UMass, Kentucky, North Texas, Missouri and Georgia, teams with a combined 12-28 record and none with the offensive firepower even close to Arkansas.
So, the dominating 21-point victory for the Hogs was absolutely no surprise. In fact, our power ratings would have had Arkansas as a 4-point favorite, not the 5-point dog it opened up as early in the week. Arkansas, which has lost nine-straight in the series, dominated from start to finish, out gaining Florida, 466-241 in total yards. The only Gator TD came on an interception return in the first half. Other than that, the Florida offense was completely stifled gaining just 12 yards rushing and holding on to the ball for just 20 minutes.
Our second-top play on Saturday was even easier as Ohio State (-17) mauled Nebraska, 62-3. This was another game many people questioned before kickoff since the Buckeyes had failed to cover their last four games and this was the largest underdog Nebraska had been in eight years. But our insiders at Ohio State told us how pissed Urban Meyer was earlier in the week when the first College Football Playoff rankings were released and had the Buckeyes sixth, behind Texas A&M and Washington. Meyer reportedly guaranteed prominent OSU alumni backers that he would score “half a hundred” against the shaky and untested Nebraska defense and “shove it up the tailpipe” of the playoff committee.
The result marked the most points OSU has ever scored against an opponent ranked in the Top 10 and the worst loss for the Huskers since 2004. The 59-point win also tied for second-most lopsided win in a game between two teams ranked in the AP Top 10.
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Elsewhere in the NFL and college football:
- Speaking of the playoff committee, this is the second-straight year that it proved to have “weak” initial rankings. Last year, the week after the rankings debuted, five teams lost to unranked opponents. This year three teams fell to unranked teams, most notably Texas A&M, which proved its No. 4 spot was complete bullshit by promptly getting upset by Mississippi State.
- This season’s “race” for the Heisman Trophy is the biggest blowout in recent memory. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is now 1-to-30 to win the trophy and basically wrapped up the award by having one of the greatest Septembers in college football history. During Saturday’s 52-7 destruction of Boston College, Jackson ran for three TDs and passed for four more. For the season he is responsible for 45 TDs. That’s more than 100 FBS teams have scored this entire season.
- The time has come to fire Notre Dame’s head coach Brian “Super Dick” Kelly. The Irish were a Top 10 team coming into the season and many pundits predicted they’d be in the playoffs. Instead the season has been an utter disaster with what seems to be brutal breakdowns every week, whether it be on offense, special teams or defense. The latest setback came on Saturday when Notre Dame fell to 3-6 in a 28-27 setback to Navy. The Irish had just six offensive possessions the entire game, the lowest number for an FBS team since 2008. With win, Ken Niumatolo becomes the second head coach in Navy history to beat Notre Dame three times.
- Amazingly, the pointspread has come into play just nine times this season in the NFL, meaning the winner of the game has covered over 90% of the games. That’s significantly down from previous years. Also, there are only 12 teams with winning records as we head into the second half of the season, meaning we may see a team or two with losing records make the playoffs.
- A few of my sportsbook director friends in Las Vegas said that the last two Sundays were tough ones for the books, and overall their profits in the NFL this year are down. The reason? First off, favorites are hitting an uncanny 58% (75-55) this season and public bettors love betting the chalk. Also, Joe Public has done very well this year in the NFL by simply riding the Patriots and Cowboys (combined 14-2 ATS) and fading the Niners and Browns (combined 3-14 ATS). But both Vegas veterans warned me that this won’t last as the market corrects itself, so beware if you are picking the games on your own and having success this year. It’s about to get more difficult.
- Speaking of the 49ers, as it did in Philadelphia, Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense is having an
adverse affect on his defense, which is forced to be on the field more than any other team because the offense doesn’t hold on to the ball very long. In last week’s loss to New Orleans, San Fran became the first team in NFL history to allow a 100-yard rusher in seven straight games and the first team since 1977 to allow at least 240 rushing yards in three consecutive games. No other team in the league this year has allowed more than one team to rush for more than 200 yards in a game. - You have to wonder why the Steelers rushed back Ben Roethlisberger from injury last week in what resulted in a loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is a longshot to catch New England for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and needs to worry about Big Ben being healthy in January. No surprise to see the Steelers go down on Sunday as the team fell to 2-6 in games when Roethlisberger is returning from injury. In those games, Big Ben has 10 TD passes against 11 interceptions.
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