We are coming off a 6-1 weekend in which we picked up 17.6 units of net profit. One of our winners on Saturday that should have been much easier than the final score indicated was Colorado (+1) over Stanford, 10-5. The Buffaloes missed three field goals, including two from inside the red zone, and had a touchdown called back by a pass interference penalty.
They also held a dominant edge in rushing yards (224-93) and first downs (23-15) over a Cardinal team that has now lost three of four and is in danger of missing out on a bowl game. Stanford came into the season ranked on the top 10 in the country in some polls with a Heisman front-runner in Christian McCafferty, but the season has been a disaster.
We have never been David Shaw fans here at Harry Bondi Sports and we laughed a few years ago when his name came up for NFL jobs. For the last five years, Shaw has been blessed with either Andrew Luck or Kevin Hogan at QB. Without a stud QB, he has been exposed.
On Saturday, Stanford failed to score a touchdown in the first half for the fifth consecutive game and has been outscored 64-9 in those first halves. Over the last four weeks, the Cardinal has scored only one offensive touchdown outside of garbage time and the three offensive points it scored on Saturday was the lowest output since Jim Harbaugh took over as coach in 2007. The Cardinal fans have certainly stood up and taken notice. Despite the perfect weather on Saturday, the stadium was virtually empty when the Colorado game kicked off and was barely half-full in the second quarter. And when the ultra-conservative Shaw ran the ball up the gut in the second half on 2-and-26, he was booed by the few fans still left in the stadium.
Elsewhere in college football and NFL:
- As discussed in last week’s Handicapper’s Notebook, Alabama has scored more defensive and special teams TDs this season that the Stanford offense this season and the Tide “D” struck again on Saturday in a 33-14 win over visiting Texas A&M (+18). The Aggies actually went ahead 14-13 early in the second half, marking just the second time all season Bama has trailed in a game, but then ended up getting outscored 20-0 the rest of the way. Alabama has now held an opponent to 14 points or fewer in 83 games in 9-plus seasons under Nick Saban. The next closest during that time frame is Ohio State with 56.
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- With Wes Lunt and Chayce Crouch injured, Illinois was forced to start redshirt freshman Jeff George, Jr., son of former Illinois star and NFL bust, Jeff George Sr., on Saturday in a 41-8 loss at Michigan. Despite covering the 39-point spread, the results were not good for George, who went 0-for-7 with an interception in the first half and finished the game 4 of 15 for 95 yards with a TD, INT and fumble. For some reason, Harbaugh called off the dogs once his team went ahead 31-0, pulling many of his starters. That’s a huge change in philosophy for Harbaugh, who earlier this year had no mercy in covering big spreads in wins over Rutgers (78-0), Penn State (49-10), Central Florida (51-14) and Hawaii (63-3). In the win, Michigan pitched a shutout in the first half for the sixth time this season, most in college football, and the Wolverine defense has now held an opponent to fewer than 10 points 10 times under Harbaugh, most in FBS since he took over before the 2015 season. Another interesting side note from the game: It marked the first time in college football history that two coaches squared off who previously coached in a Super Bowl (Harbaugh and Lovie Smith).
- While many square bettors and handicappers got sucked in on Arkansas (+10) against Auburn on Saturday, Harry Bondi released the Tigers as part of a 3-1 Saturday and they responded with a 56-3 victory, one of the easiest wins of the season for us here at Harry Bondi Sports. Auburn RB Eli Stove broke a 73-yard TD run on the very first play of the game, setting the tone for his team’s 543 rushing yards, the seventh-most in a game in SEC history. The 53-point margin of victory was also the most by an AP-ranked team this year. Earlier this month, Bondi and his handicapping team spotted Auburn as one of the most improved teams in the nation and pulled the trigger on Saturday knowing a fresh Tigers team off a bye week would overwhelm the Hogs, who were playing for the eighth straight week, including a third game in a row against a ranked opponent, without an off week.
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- It’s time to place Steve Addazio on Harry Bondi’s “College Football Coaches on the Hot Seat” list, after his Boston College team dropped a 28-20 decision at home to Syracuse on Saturday as a 4-point favorite. The Eagles have now lost 12 straight ACC games dating back to last season. While defense has been the team’s calling card in recent history, that wasn’t the case on Saturday as Syracuse QB Eric Dungey completed 32 of 38 passes for 434 yards and three touchdowns. After holding teams to an average of 15.3 points last year – including Florida State to 14, Louisville to 17, and Notre Dame to 19 – BC has allowed 150 in four ACC games this season, an average of 37.5. And had it not been for three Syracuse turnovers and and 16 penalties as well as a BC kickoff return for a TD, Syracuse would have won this game by a lot more than eight points.
- Another college coach that should be skating on thin ice is Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz. Yes, we realize the Hawkeyes were in the Big 10 Championship Game last year and advanced the Rose Bowl, and Ferentz just signed an extension through 2026, but last week was a low point for the 18th-
year head man, who apparently forgot that it’s within the rules to go for a two-point conversion after scoring a touchdown. Trailing 14-6 to Wisconsin, Iowa was facing a 4th-and-5 from the Badgers 20 with 5:25 remaining when he opted to try a field goal, which his kicker promptly missed. Wisconsin got the ball back, ate up four minutes of clock and kicked a field goal, on its way to a 17-9 victory. When Ferentz was asked about the the field goal attempt after the game, he said he thought Iowa had to score twice. Even after he was reminded that his team trailed by 8 points and did not need to score twice, he simply said, “The situation we were in, we thought it was the best play.” - Following a 3-0 start, the Baltimore Ravens are mired in a four-game losing streak for the first time in head coach John Harbaugh’s tenure. But keep in mind that those four losses came by a total of 20 points. The Ravens have a bye this week and it will be interesting to see if they come out of the off week realizing they could easily be 6-1 or 5-2 instead of 3-4, or have they quit on their head coach?
- Similarly, the San Diego Chargers could very easily be undefeated right now. Coming off back-to-back wins over Denver and Atlanta, the Bolts are 3-4, but in the opener they blew a 17-3 lead to KC and in the other three losses to Indy, New Orleans and Oakland, they were outscored by a total of just five points in regulation.
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