BY HARRY BONDI
Entering last week’s NFL Wildcard Round, underdogs were on a nice 17-4-1 run in the NFL Playoffs dating back the last few years.
The run for the dogs came to a slight stop last week when the puppies went 2-2, as we now turn to the Divisional Round.
Over the last few days, my staff and I have met multiple times to discuss what we have found through our extensive research regarding the NFL Playoffs, and below are just a few key factors out of the dozens and dozens we have uncovered.
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Now, onto some key handicapping factors for NFL Divisional Round weekend:
1. Bye Week is Overrated
Since 1978, when the first-round bye was introduced to the NFL playoff system, 63 of the 78 Super Bowl participants were teams that got to rest during the Wild Card Round. But that doesn’t make these teams are invincible.
In 11 of the last 13 years at least one of the teams coming off a bye in the divisional round lost outright, with 2015 and last year as the exceptions.
Since 2001, teams that are off a bye week in the divisional round are 30-37-1 ATS, including the last eight years when the record is 25-7 SU, but just 15-17 ATS. Also, when home teams in the divisional round are laying 7 points or more, they are 14-3 straight up since 2015, but just 6-9-2 ATS.
The fact that the record of these same rested teams was 51-13 SU and 38-26 ATS from 1990 thru 2005, makes us think the oddsmaker finally caught up and is baking the bye week factor into the line.
Also, favorites of between 3.5 and 9.5 have covered just 10 of their last 22 chances in the divisional round. As for No. 1 seeds, they are 14-18 ATS in Divisional Round games since 2003.
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2. Divisional Round Routs are Common
In 2015, all four divisional round games were decided by 7 points or less, but that was a rare occurrence. In the last 30 years, more than half the divisional round games (87 out of 170 have been decided by 11 points or more, and 71 of those games were decided by more than two touchdowns.
Since 1985, favorites are 89-82-4 ATS in the divisional round, but since 2006 underdogs have gone 28-23-1 ATS (58%) with 17 outright upsets.
Also, double-digit favorites in this round are 25-21-2 ATS since 1990 with 12 of those big dogs winning outright. Unless Baltimore and Kansas City climb up to double-digit favorites, we won’t have any of those to worry about this year.
3. Back-to-Back Underdog Role is Daunting
While teams with a bye week may not have as big of an advantage as most people think, the numbers do show that teams playing for a second straight week in the NFL playoffs as the underdog tend to struggle.
Teams coming off a win as an underdog in the Wildcard Round are just 11-46 straight up and 21-36 ATS in the Divisional Round.
That may be bad news for Tennessee and Minnesota this week.
One other trend to keep in mind this week, only seven teams that have been outscored by their opponents for the season have made it to the divisional round since 2001, and those teams are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 ATS. Houston has been outscored this season, even if you include last week’s win over Buffalo.
4. Overs Have Been Profitable
Since 1975, overs in the divisional round have cashed at a 55% clip (72-59), but they’ve been especially kind in recent years, going 22-12 (65%) since 2010, including 8-4 the last three years.
This is impressive since many of these games have been played in cold weather sites, just like this year where KC, Green Bay and Baltimore have home games.
What does it all mean for this weekend’s games? Give me a call today to find out!