The NFL Playoffs have been a money machine for all members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team” as we have hit 75% in the postseason over the last 10 years!
Many of my fellow handicappers in the industry have reached out to me over the years to find out how we had so much success and the reason is quite simple: Our approach to handicapping football is unlike any other service.
In addition to studying hours of game film and working the phones, speaking with a countless number of NFL beat writers, broadcasters and Las Vegas veterans, we also analyze and pour over the tens of thousand of stats and trends in our database. While we never make a selection on a game based solely on stats and trends, there are a few compelling numbers below that are worth paying attention to over the next four weeks before our next Super Bowl champion is crowned.
If you would like to receive our official plays for the NFL Playoffs, call me today at 1.877.332.0077 and we’ll put you in the “Steam Team” through the Super Bowl for just $149 and we’ll include our selection in next Monday night’s National Championship Game between LSU and Clemson for FREE!
The pointspread rarely matters in the Wildcard Round
Since 1978, the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all NFL Playoff games 82% of the time and since 1980 the straight-up winner in Wildcard Round covers the pointspread a whopping 89.8% of the time (127-18-15). For frame of reference, in the regular season the pointspread typically comes into play 83% of the time.
In the last 10 years, the straight-up winner in the Wild Card Round has gone 39-7-2 ATS, but since 1990 Wild Card home favorites are just 10-13 ATS when the line is between 6 and 9.5 points.
Pay attention to strength of schedule in the Wildcard Round
Since 2002, the wildcard playoff team with the stronger strength of schedule, according to Sagarin Ratings, have gone 45-19 (70%) against the spread.
In recent years, this trend is just 6-6, so the line may be catching up to it, but it’s still worth considering when handicapping this weekend’s wildcard games.
This year, the wild card teams with the better strength of schedule are Tennessee and Houston in the AFC and Seattle and New Orleans in the NFC. It’s worth mentioning that the disparity in SOS for the Seattle-Philadelphia game is as large as you can get. According to Sagarin, the Seahawks played the toughest schedule in the NFL this season, while the Eagles’ schedule ranked dead last at 32.
Home field advantage is overrated
In the final weeks of the regular season, sports radio blowhards and ESPN talking heads were going on and on about how certain teams are fighting for the top seed in the playoffs and the all-important “home field advantage.” But when it comes to betting the NFL Playoffs, the home edge isn’t quite as important to the almighty pointspread as you might think.
Last year, home teams in the NFL playoffs went 3-7 ATS, including 0-2 on Conference Championship Sunday. Over the last two seasons, road teams are 15-5 ATS in the postseason and since 2002, home teams are just 75-91-2 (45%) ATS.
Beware of QBs making their playoff debut
It’s safe to say that experience matters when it comes to the NFL playoffs, especially at the quarterback position. Over the last 20 years, 53 QBs have made a debut start in the postseason, but 13 of those games matched two QBs with zero playoff experience. In the 43 other games, the QB making his first playoff start went 13-30 straight up and 11-31-1 against the spread.
Three quarterbacks are making their first playoff start this weekend: Carson Wentz of the Eagles, Josh Allen of the Bills and Ryan Tannehill of the Titans.
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