BY HARRY BONDI
Future bets and proposition bets have been very profitable for me and my clients over the years. Just this football season, we went 5-0 on our Season Win Total Best Bets, running our record to to 50-10, 83%, over the last 9 years.
Along with college basketball, they are two of the easiest bets to cash because when hundreds of different wagers are posted, if you do your research, you will find clear mistakes by the oddsmakers, just like we did last weekend when we released our College Basketball “Underdog Lock of the Year” on Alabama (+2) over Oklahoma. We said before the game that the wrong team was favored and the pointspread was off by more than eight points. Sure enough, the Tide helped us cash in with an 80-73 victory.
This is precisely why we love the Super Bowl. Because when you bet with a place like BetOnline or Wager Web where they offer more than 300 prop bets on one game, it’s easy to isolate on the dozen or so where the line is dead wrong.
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Below, please find a sampling of our Super Bowl Prop Bets for Sunday’s game. To receive the complete report featuring 10 Prop Best Bets, as well as the winner of Sunday’s Patriots-Eagles game, call me right now at 1-877-332-0077.
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY JAY AJAYI – OVER 17.5 (-110)
The Eagles offense changed dramatically when Nick Foles took over for Carson Wentz. Foles avoids trouble by dumping it off to the backs, instead of scrambling around and trying to make something out of nothing, which was a Wentz speciality. In turn, Ajayi’s receiving numbers have gone up. After coming over in a trade with the Dolphins, Ajayi had six receptions for 40 yards in five games with Wentz as the starter. But in just four starts with Foles at QB, he’s had just as many receptions, but more than three times the yards with 131. He could get this total on one reception alone since New England ranks 22nd in the league in covering running backs as pass catchers.
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TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY LeGarrette Blount – UNDER 28.5
After rushing for 26 yards or more in 11 of the first 12 games of the season, Blount’s numbers have decreased dramatically. He’s averaged just 20.3 yards a game in the last six games, but the majority of that came in the regular season finale against Dallas when the team had nothing to play for. Blount is at his best in outdoor conditions when the weather is cold and he punishes defensive players for trying to tackle him. He’s not a dance-and-cut runner that thrives on an indoor track. He’ll still be used in short yardage situations, but will be far from the featured back, and if the Eagles fall behind, his playing time will plummet.
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ROB GRONKOWSKI – LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 24.5 YARDS (-110)
When healthy, Gronk is the most important player to the Patriots offensive success, other than TB12. Even though he put up huge numbers once again this year, the truth is that the Pats tend to hold him back during the regular season, knowing that their chances of winning the Super Bowl increase dramatically with him on the field. But there will be no holding back on Sunday. He received five or more targets from Brady in 12 of the 15 games he saw regular playing time this season with an average reception of more than 14 yards. The Eagles have the 7th-best pass defense in the league, but were only ranked 17th in the league against tight ends. Gronk will play and will be a major factor. And we’re guessing he’ll snare at least one deep ball of over 25 yards
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STEPHEN GOSTKOWSKI’S FIRST KICKOFF WILL NOT BE A TOUCHBACK (+140)
The Patriots rarely ask Stephen Gostkowski to kick the ball into the endzone for a touchback. In fact, even though he led the league in kickoff attempts this season with 99 (that’s what happens when you play for the best offensive team in football), he only had the 17th most touchbacks with 44. That means his kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks just 44% of the time and we’re getting a +140 price. Do the math. The value is with us here.