This is a weekend that typically finds us mixing mint juleps in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, cleaning up in the NBA Playoffs and riding Chief Baseball Handicapper Frank Drake to another hot start on the diamond.
But the first weekend in May will be much different this year as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on our daily lives.
Thankfully, we have the Arkansas Derby to help ease the pain.
After the Run for the Roses was rescheduled to September, Oaklawn Park made the crafty decision to move the 84th running of the Arkansas Derby, one of the most important prep races for the Derby, to May 2. For just the second time, the race has been split into two divisions in order to accommodate the 22 three-year-olds that were entered (before a few recent scratches), so we have not one, but two races, to handicap for Saturday.
ARKANSAS DERBY – 1ST DIVISION
6:29 p.m. ET post time
WINNER – No. 1 – Charlatan (Even)
The first division features a field of 11 horses and, without a doubt the headliner is the Bob Baffert-trained Charlatan, who is already one of the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. We don’t tend to bet favorites in horse racing, but this looks like a runaway for this magnificent colt and if you saw him strut his stuff in his first two starts you know why. Baffert has had a horse win or place in the Arkansas Derby in five of the last eight years, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister in 2012 and eventual Triple Crown winner and Horse of the Year American Pharoah in 2015. Charlatan catches a huge break by being in the weaker Division 1 this year and, barring the unforeseen, expect to see him in the winner’s circle on Saturday.
VALUE BET – No. 8 – Anneau d’Or (6-to-1)
Great value at 6-to-1 on this classic stalker. He disappointed as the favorite in his last start at Fair Grounds back in February, but he was bumped early and never recovered, finishing a distant ninth. He also wore blinkers for the first time in that race. He’ll remove the blinders on Saturday as he did in his first three starts when he recorded a win and two close seconds. If he gets a clean trip, Anneau d’Or will give Charlatan a run for his money.
LONG SHOT – No. 10 – Crypto Cash (20-to-1)
This Kenny McPeek-trained stalker returns to his preferred surface of dirt, and has two wins and a second in five career starts. One of those wins came at Churchill Downs in November when he came from off of the pace and with an outside draw here, he may do the same. He’ll be too far behind to win, but a strong close could get him in the money so consider him in exotics.
ARKANSAS DERBY – 2ND DIVISION
7:43 p.m. ET post time
WINNER – No. 7 – Silver Prospector (10-to-1)
The second division favorites are Rebel Stakes winner Nadal (5-to-2) and Louisiana Derby winner Wells Bayou (7-to-2), but we’re going to dig a little deeper and go with the erratic, but talented, Silver Prospector.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has three Arkansas Derby wins to his name, including in 2016 when Creator prevailed with jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who will ride Silver Prospector on Saturday. He already beat Wells Bayou at the Southwest Stakes and Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the Law at the Kentucky Jockey Club, so he certainly won’t be intimidated by this field. Expect a very fast pace, which Silver Prospector prefers. Look for him to sit off the pace and fire down the stretch to earn his fourth victory
Value Bet – No. 11 – Wells Bayou (7-to-2)
Wells Bayou is a talented colt who would have been running in the Kentucky Derby today thanks to his win in the Louisiana Derby. Oaklawn is his home track and he is trained by Brad Cox, the winningest trainer this year at Oaklawn. Wells Bayou has already been money at Oaklawn this year, romping in a claiming race on January 26 and then setting the pace in the Southwest Stakes before losing by a length to Silver Prospector, as mentioned above. A 7-11 exacta looks like a good bet here!
Long Shot – No. 10 – Farmington Road (12-to-1)
Todd Pletcher has won the Arkansas Derby a record five times so anytime we can get one of his entries at a double-digit price, we are going to the window. The outside post is perfect for him because he’s a dead-nuts closer, as seen by his second-place finish at the Oaklawn Stakes when he was 12th entering the backstretch before shooting up and taking second, missing the victory by a half-length. You have to see this finish to believe it! See below: