We fully expect the Tampa Bay Bucs to be much improved this season, but it’s more about the subtraction of turnover machine Jameis Winston at QB and less about the addition of Tom Brady. We have been watching a ton of film lately in anticipation, hopefully, of the upcoming NFL season and when you dig into the Bucs numbers, it’s mind boggling just how costly Famous Jameis and his interceptions were.
Keeping in mind that in the NFL the team that wins the turnover battle typically wins the game nearly 80% of the time and cover the spread 72% of the time, Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle in 14 of 16 games. Despite that stat, the team still managed to go 7-9, with two of those losses coming in overtime and four other losses by seven points or less. Last year, Winston threw 30 interceptions, more than any NFL quarterback has thrown in a single season over the last 31 years. Twenty-three of those picks came when the score was a one possession game and 10 of them came in the fourth quarter. Also, 25 of the interceptions came while he was standing in a clean pocket and seven of them were pick-sixes. Amazingly, Brady has fewer pick-sixes over the last 10 years combined (six) than Winston had last year.
Overall, Winston has thrown 88 interceptions and fumbled 50 times in his last 72 games and over the last two seasons the Bucs have ranked 28th and 31st in the NFL in turnover margin, while the Patriots and Tom Brady have ranked 1st and 6th. Bottom line: Even if Brady is 42 years old and his best days are behind him, he is not going to throw 30 interceptions this season. So if the Bucs cut those turnovers in half, without improving any other stat, they will win a couple more games and be in the playoffs this season.
The Arizona Cardinals made a huge splash when they traded for WR DeAndre Hopkins, giving the Texans RB David Johnson and some draft picks. With fellow WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella lining up next to him, Hopkins will be a great fit for the Kyler Murray-led offense, but we won’t be sold on just how much this team will improve until we see what Kliff Kingsbury does in the draft. The team desperately needs help on the offensive line and on its defensive front. Look for them to get some help in those areas with their first pick (#8 overall).
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they do not have a pick in the second round, but they do hold three picks in the third and fourth rounds, which should definitely be spent on defensive players. Those picks will be crucial for the team’s future and if the offensive-minded Kingsbury decides to ignore the team’s defensive needs, it could prove to be fatal.
We are working on a special edition of the Bondi Bulletin that will feature our best bets for the upcoming NFL Draft. One of those wagers will be on Cole Kmet from Notre Dame to be the first tight end drafted at a price of -140. Bottom line: This is a weak tight end class. We don’t think one will be drafted until the third round and it will be Kmet. He made big strides last year finishing with 43 catches for over 500 yards and six touchdowns in a Fighting Irish offense that had plenty of other weapons. His only competition at tight end is Missouri’s Albert Okewuegbunan, who was really inconsistent, and Dayton’s Adam Trautman, whose small school resume is going to hurt him.
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In college football, one of the most popular teams in the nation entering this season will be the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who went 11-2 last season for the first time in over 100 years and welcomes back the majority of the offense, including the entire offensive line. But keep in mind, PJ Fleck’s team played an easy schedule last year and six of those wins came by seven points or less. The Gophers, who suffered some big losses on defense, will be playing a much tougher schedule in 2020. Last year they missed playing BOTH Michigan and Michigan State and both are on the slate this year as well as a road game at Wisconsin. The Season Over/Under Win Total for the Gophers opened at 8 and if the “square money” pushes this number to 8.5 we’ll be ready to pounce on the under.
Another Big 10 team coming off a surprisingly good season that we think is destined to regress is Illinois. The lllini went 6-7 with huge upset wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin, but ended the season on a three-game losing streak. They caused 28 turnovers on defense and ranked in the Top 15 in the country in turnover margin, a stat that most likely won’t repeat itself, and they were very fortunate last season in catching some teams that were riddled with injuries. The 2020 season starts with some cupcakes — Illinois State, Connecticut, Bowling Green and Rutgers — before the team heads into Big 10 play and if they are 4-0 at that point, the Illini will be vastly overrated and a great “go against” team in October.
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If there is anything we can do to help feel free to give us a call at 1-877-332-0077. Until our next issue, Stay Healthy!