Usually at this time of year we are crushing bookies with our March Madness picks and getting ready for another fast start in baseball.
But with America’s professional sports suspended due to the coronavirus, we are left to handicap horse racing, something we have done very successfully over the years. If you’re interested in horse racing selections, call me at 1-877-332-0077.
We were never more prepared for March Madness then we were this year. We printed our flyer early, contracted it to be mailed out and I was in Las Vegas meeting with our people there that keep us up to date on smart money moves and who allow us to get down in size. Then the pandemic hit, stopping sports and crushing our business. The good news is it will allow us more time to get ready for football. Here are our thoughts on recent developments in the NFL.
The biggest news is Tom Brady leaving New England for Tampa Bay. This was not about money. Patriots owner Bob Kraft was prepared to pay Brady $30 to $33 million per year. Brady left because he was tired of Bill Belichick’s methods and the head coach let him walk because he felt Tom’s skills had diminished and he wasn’t worth the money. The seeds for Brady’s divorce from Belichick were planted in 2017. Jimmy Garoppolo was going to be a free agent after that season and the Patriots couldn’t afford to keep both QBs.
Brady left because he was tired of Bill Belichick’s methods and the head coach let him walk because he felt Tom’s skills had diminished and he wasn’t worth the money.
That October, Kraft and Belichick had a meeting in which the coach informed Kraft he wanted to trade Brady, but was rebuffed by Kraft, who really does view Brady as a son. As a result, Garoppolo was traded to San Francisco. Brady never forgave Belichick for trying to trade him and combined with the mistreatment, in Brady’s eyes, of his personal trainer and the lack of respect he believed Belichick showed him over the last few years, the greatest QB and Head Coach combination in football history have gone their separate ways.
As a result, the Patriots won’t be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl in decades. But the overreaction to the Brady news seems extreme. At the Westgate in Las Vegas last week, the Pats were a whopping 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, up from 12-to-1 when they opened the Super Bowl futurr market on Jan. 13. Let’s not forget that in mid-October (a mere five months ago) there were odds on New England going undefeated and Belichick and Brady were an overwhelming 7-to-4 favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Even with all that transpired in the second half of last season, the Patriots were a win over Miami in the season finale away from being the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Yes, they have suffered losses, including a 42-year-old QB, and at this writing their starting QB is Jared Stitham. But the Pats still have Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh Daniels on the sideline. Belichick’s record on when to let players go is remarkable. Will they actually win the Super Bowl next year? Most likely not. But if they win the AFC East (more on this below) and get a home game in the playoffs, that 30-to-1 ticket is going to be very valuable.
The national media is fawning over the Bills getting WR Stefon Diggs (Bonehead Jim Rome tweeted: “Should we just crown the Bills AFC East champs right now?”) but we’re not so sure. Yes, Buffalo now has one of the better WR corps in the league, but they also have the worst downfield passer in the league at QB in Josh Allen. This would be like adding Ezekiel Elliott to your offense when you have the worst offensive line in football. New England is still a slight favorite to win the division and for good reason.
Speaking of being undervalued, we love what the Carolina Panthers are doing and the direction they’re heading. First off, David Tepper is one of the sharpest investment minds in the country and will prove to be one of the best owners in football. Second, they won the Matt Rhule head coaching sweepstakes and the newest NFL Boy Wonder immediately went out and hired Joe Brady, who helped turn Joe Burrow into a Heisman Winner/National Champion/NFL first rounder at LSU to be his offensive coordinator.
Those two moves allowed the team to lure the “other” big free agent QB, Tedy Bridgewater, from New Orleans. Brady served as the Saints assistant offensive coordinator in 2017 and 2018 and embraced Sean Payton’s complex offensive schemes. Now, he brings Bridgewater in from that same system, while inheriting one of the best RBs in the league in Christian McCaffrey, who will be even more productive in 2020 as Bridgewater is at his best with short-range, dump-off passes. Add it all up and the NFC South is going to be one of the most intriguing divisions to watch this year with Drew Brees, Bridgewater, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan as the QBs and RB Todd Gurley leaving LA to sign with the Falcons.
Kudos to the Chicago Bears for trading a fourth round draft pick to the Jaguars for Nick Foles. The easy thing to do was to keep Mitchell Trubisky at QB with no competition but they finally realized he might not be the answer. Trubisky may win the starting job out of training camp, but even if he does, he’ll be on a short lease and under tremendous pressure. Don’t be surprised if Foles comes off the bench early in the season and ends up taking over. He knows head coach Matt Nagy and his system very well and he also worked with quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo last year in Jacksonville.
Lost in all of the big name trades and free agent rumblings, the Ravens quietly continue to build what was an already impressive roster as they try to recover from getting shocked at home in the playoffs. With 21 out of 22 starters coming back from a team that had the league’s best record heading into last year’s playoffs, the Ravens signed five-time Pro Bowl defensive ends Calais Campbell and Michael Brockers, to bolster their run defense, which was their lone weakness last year. Defending champ Kansas City is the favorite to win the Super Bowl right now, but don’t sleep on the Ravens, who return the league MVP at QB, one of the best head coaches in the game and an offense that was unstoppable until the inexplicable playoff loss to Tennessee.
Thank you for your past and future business and loyalty to Harry Bondi Sports. We will be sending Bondi Bulletin updates regularly in the coming weeks. In the meantime, stay healthy and if you want to bet some horses with us give us a call at 1-877-332-0077.