As we head into the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Course in New York, there is one thing we are absolutely certain of: The winning score won’t come close to matching last year, when Brooks Koepka prevailed at Erin Hills at 16-under par. That winning score matched the lowest total ever at a U.S. Open, matching a record set in 2011 by Rory McIlroy.
And guess what happened the following year? U.S. Open officials made damn sure the course would be testy and rigorous. The result? Webb Simpson’s winning score was +1.
So, knowing full well that the iconic Shinnecock course, which has hosted four previous U.S. Opens, will be no walk in the park this week when the event tees off early Thursday morning, we will be certain to use players who have a proven track record on U.S. Open courses. Nine of the last 10 winners have had a previous Top 20 or better in a U.S. Open, and eight of the last 10 winners have played in at least three U.S. Opens before capturing the event.
Other factors we’re taking note of this week, include:
An elite player (but not necessarily a major champion) will win. We’ve seen big names win majors when played at a debut venue. Five of the last seven winners ranked in the Top 22 of the World Golf Ranking and four of those winners were in the Top 7. But the winner doesn’t necessarily have to have a major championship on his resume since the last three U.S. Open winners were first-time major winners and nine of the last 10 major championship winners overall had never won one before.
Longshots thrive: While we expect an elite player to win, that doesn’t mean it has to be one of the betting favorites, The average price of the U.S. Open winner in the last 10 years has been 40-to-1, with longshots like Koepka (45-to-1), Martin Kaymer (40-to-1), Graeme McDowell (80-to-1) and Simpson (80-to-1) all cashing in.
Youth will be served: The grind — both mental and physical — of a U.S. Open is for real. Every one of the last 10 U.S. Open winners was under the age of 32 and six of them were in their 20s. Also, being fresh is going to be helpful. Eight of the last 10 winners did not play the week before.
Front-runners rule: For those of you that like to bet the tournament in-running, keep in mind that, just like at the Masters, you want to back players that get off to a good starts because it’s been near impossible to come from too far behind. Only one winner this century has come back from more than four strokes off the lead after Round 1 (Webb Simpson in 2012). Simpson is also the only winner in the last 11 years to be outside the top-three after 36 holes and he’s the only U.S. Open champ that was outside the top-12 after two rounds since Larry Nelson won it way back in 1983. The 2007 winner, Angel Cabrera, was four back and T-7 after Saturday’s play but since 1898, only five winners were further down the leaderboard than Cabrera heading into the final round on Sunday, and eight of the last nine winners were in either 1st or 2nd place after 54 holes.
With all of that said, here is a sampling of our picks. As always, we recommend playing a quarter or half unit on the “to win” picks since there is so much variance in that market, and to go ahead and play a full unit, or more, on the proposition and match up bets.
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Jason Day
Nothing fancy here. Day checks all of the above boxes, most notably his U.S. Open record where in 7 starts he has five Top 10s, including two runner-ups. Obviously, his style of play is perfect for U.S. Open courses, especially his high ball flight.
Play a half-unit on Day to win at 16-to-1 and a full unit on a Top 20 finish (-130).
Rickie Fowler
Another guy who fits the exact profile we laid out above: In his 20s, No. 7 in World Golf Ranking, three top 10 finishes at the U.S. Open and took last week off. He also has two top 5 finishes in the British Open and that’s vital here since Shinnecock is a classic links course.
Play a half-unit on Fowler to win at 14-to-1 and a full unit on a Top 20 finish (-130).
Brandt Snedeker
Snedeker has nine Top 10 major championship finishes since 2008. In 11 U.S. Open starts, he has five top 10s and eight top 20s, so we have no doubt he’s a classic “horse for the course.”
Play a half-unit on him to win at 100-to-1 and a full unit on him at -130 in a head-to-head match-up over Charl Schwartzel, who has missed the U.S. Open cut two of the last four years.